Enter the Boardroom with Nurole 85. Dan Gardner (part one) - superforecasting and fat tail risks
10 snips
Sep 4, 2024 Dan Gardner is an international best-selling author known for his insights on forecasting and decision-making. He discusses the essence of probabilistic thinking and how it can empower board members. Gardner emphasizes the importance of epistemic humility, warning against the pitfalls of past successes and the common underestimation of luck. He also explores strategies for effective feedback on decisions and assessing a prospective member's judgment. Additionally, he highlights the significance of using real-world data to navigate budgeting challenges.
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
1 2 3 4 5 6
Intro
00:00 • 2min
Mastering Uncertainty: The Art of Superforecasting
01:55 • 8min
Understanding Probabilistic Thinking: Base Rates vs. Specifics
10:01 • 3min
The Power of Epistemic Humility
12:57 • 4min
Success, Luck, and Judgment
17:05 • 21min
Navigating Budget Forecasting: The Importance of Real-World Data
37:51 • 4min