Enter the Boardroom with Nurole cover image

85. Dan Gardner (part one) - superforecasting and fat tail risks

Enter the Boardroom with Nurole

CHAPTER

Understanding Probabilistic Thinking: Base Rates vs. Specifics

This chapter explores the importance of probabilistic thinking and the role of base rates in making forecasts. It contrasts the inside view and outside view approaches to analysis, emphasizing the need to acknowledge biases while making predictions.

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