85. Dan Gardner (part one) - superforecasting and fat tail risks
Enter the Boardroom with Nurole
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Mastering Uncertainty: The Art of Superforecasting
This chapter explores the phenomenon of superforecasting, showcasing the unique cognitive habits and traits that enable a select few to make remarkably accurate predictions in complex geopolitical scenarios. It emphasizes the importance of adopting a probabilistic mindset and intellectual humility to enhance forecasting abilities and navigate the uncertainties of the future.
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