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21min chapter
85. Dan Gardner (part one) - superforecasting and fat tail risks
Enter the Boardroom with Nurole
Success, Luck, and Judgment
This chapter explores how people often attribute their successes to skill instead of acknowledging the influence of luck. It emphasizes the importance of accountability and clear feedback in decision-making, particularly for board members, to improve forecasting and mitigate risks. Through discussions on psychological biases and historical data in project management, the chapter highlights strategies to avoid common pitfalls and prepare for unpredictable challenges.
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