The Science of Success How You Can Predict The Future Better Than World-Famous Experts - The Art & Science of Risk with Dan Gardner
Oct 26, 2023
In this episode, Dan Gardner, an expert on risk assessment, discusses the radical mismatch between intuitive risk perception and actual risks. He highlights the study of 20,000 forecasts, the concept of superforecasters, and how they outperform experts and algorithms. Gardner emphasizes the importance of critical thinking, probabilistic thinking, and intellectual humility in making accurate predictions and reducing major dangers in life.
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
1 2 3 4 5 6
Introduction
00:00 • 3min
Risks and Intuition
03:23 • 15min
The Psychology of Uncertainty and the Preference for Hedgehog-like Predictions
18:43 • 3min
The Importance of Intellectual Humility and Probabilistic Thinking
22:12 • 8min
Super Forecasting: Characteristics and Skills
29:55 • 17min
Interactions with Listeners and Promotional Offers
47:20 • 2min