The Mismatch Between Intuitive Risk and Actual Risks

This podcast episode explores the radical mismatch between the intuitive sense of risk and the actual risks individuals face. It highlights how experts and forecasters are often less accurate than random guessing. The episode discusses the Good Judgment Project, a study of over 20,000 forecasts, which reveals the existence of superforecasters. These individuals can make better predictions than prediction markets and intelligence analysts. The main factors that differentiate superforecasters include intellectual curiosity, the enjoyment of thinking, active open-mindedness, intellectual humility, and methodically unpacking questions. The episode emphasizes the importance of thinking probabilistically and adopting a growth mindset.