The Importance of Intellectual Humility and Probabilistic Thinking

In this episode we discuss the radical mismatch between your intuitive sense of risk and the actual risks you face. We look at why most experts and forecasters are less accurate than dart throwing monkeys. We talk about how to simply and easily dramatically reduce your risk of most major dangers in your life. We explore the results from the “good judgment project” study of more than 20,000 forecasts. We talk about what superforecasters are and how they beat prediction markets, intelligence analysts with classified information, and software algorithms to make the best possible forecasts and MUCH more with Dan Gardner.

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