Annie Duke Thinks You Should Quit (Update)

In this book, Tetlock and Gardner present the results of the Good Judgment Project, a massive forecasting tournament that identified a small group of 'superforecasters' who are exceptionally good at predicting future events. The authors explain that good forecasting does not require powerful computers or arcane methods but involves gathering evidence from various sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. The book uses stories of forecasting successes and failures, as well as interviews with high-level decision makers, to illustrate these principles and demonstrate how anyone can improve their forecasting abilities.

In this book, Angela Duckworth presents a compelling argument that success is driven more by grit, a fusion of relentless passion and perseverance, than by talent. She explains what grit is, how to identify and develop it, and how it can be grown through stages such as developing interests, consistent practice, finding a pro-social purpose, and cultivating optimism. The book is structured in three parts: explaining what grit is and why it matters, how to grow grit from the inside out, and how to grow grit from the outside in, targeting parents, coaches, teachers, and organizational leaders. Duckworth supports her arguments with personal stories, historical insights, and interviews with high achievers from various fields.