Former pro poker player and decision-making expert Annie Duke discusses tactical decision-making frameworks, Daniel Kahneman's lessons, the power of pre-mortems, money vs. happiness, mental time travel, and improving decision quality. She also shares insights on how First Round Capital enhances their decision-making process.

This episode is packed with wisdom from previous guests on the art of making better decisions.  We discuss the three types of decision-makers, how to control your emotions when making decisions, why it’s crucial to look at every decision differently, the processes for coming to the right decision, and how to learn from your mistakes when you get it wrong. The guests on this episode are author Ventakesh Rao (Episode 7), psychologist, author and professional poker player Maria Konnikova (Episode 89), Stripe co-founder Patrick Collison (Episode 32), cognitive-behavioral decision science author and professional poker player Annie Duke (Episode 37), and Shopify co-founder Tobi Lutke (Episode 41).   Transcript: https://fs.blog/knowledge-project-podcast-transcripts/tkp-insights-decision-making/ -- Want even more? Members get early access, hand-edited transcripts, member-only episodes, and so much more. Learn more here: https://fs.blog/membership/ Every Sunday, our Brain Food newsletter shares timeless insights and ideas you can use at work and home. Add it to your inbox: https://fs.blog/newsletter/ Follow Shane on Twitter at: https://twitter.com/ShaneAParrish

Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion and author, shares her expertise on decision-making. She discusses how poker serves as a model for navigating uncertainty and incomplete information. Annie emphasizes the importance of broadening our decision-making perspectives beyond negative outcomes, which fosters risk aversion. She introduces backcasting as a strategy to visualize future goals and reverse-engineer actions. The conversation also covers the comparison of decision-making in poker versus chess, offering insights into probabilistic thinking and learning frameworks.

I have wanted to do this interview for a long time. On this episode, I am thrilled to have Annie Duke, former professional poker player and author of the new book, Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts. Annie has a very interesting background that makes her uniquely qualified to speak about high-level decision making. As an author, speaker, world-class poker player, and academic in the fields of psychology and cognitive theory, Annie understands the intersection of luck, skill, and making decisions in uncertain, chaotic environments better than most people on the planet. This is a whirlwind of an episode, and we cover all kinds of fascinating topics, including: The strange circumstances that shifted Annie’s path from finishing a Ph.D. in linguistics to becoming a professional poker player What it was like to be a female poker player in a predominantly male sport (especially before poker had become socially acceptable) What drew Annie into such a high stakes, time-pressured environment and why she felt like poker was the perfect fit for her How her graduate work in psychology informed the way she approached the game of poker — and helped her rack up wins How she finds the signal in a very noisy stream of feedback The big mistakes Annie noticed other players making that were stalling their progress in the game but allowed her to make giant leaps forward The role that mental models played in her learning process (and which models Annie liked to lean on the most in a high stakes game) The power of surrounding yourself with people that can help you expand your circle of competence — and how that made all the difference in Annie’s development as a player Confirmatory and exploratory thought, and how one helps us to be “accurate” and one helps us to be “right.” The secret pact you should be making with the people who are closest to you And so much more. This episode is just under two hours long, but there’s no fat in it. Annie delivers a masterclass in making the smartest decisions we can, even when our hubris insists otherwise. Do some finger stretches before hitting play, because you’re going to be taking some serious notes. Please enjoy the interview! *** Go Premium: Members get early access, ad-free episodes, hand-edited transcripts, searchable transcripts, member-only episodes, and more. Sign up at: https://fs.blog/membership/   Every Sunday our newsletter shares timeless insights and ideas that you can use at work and home. Add it to your inbox: https://fs.blog/newsletter/   Follow Shane on Twitter at: https://twitter.com/ShaneAParrish  

Annie Duke dropped out of a PhD program in cognitive psychology– and went on to win the World Series of Poker. At the Authors@Wharton Series, Adam and Annie discuss the evidence on when to pull the plug, delve into decision-making lessons from psychology and poker, and examine the difference between rethinking an idea and leaving it behind. Annie’s latest book “Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away” is out now. Transcripts for ReThinking are available at go.ted.com/RWAGscripts

Annie Duke discusses decision-making in life, highlighting limitations of pro/con lists, importance of expected value calculations, influence of heuristics and biases, and impact of external factors on decisions. She also explores the Alliance for Decision Education's mission and contrasts stage hypnosis with individual hypnosis.

Annie Duke discusses decision-making, base rates, improving investing processes, using kill criteria to quit investments, dissociating from ideas, and the importance of a quitting coach in making better decisions.

In this episode, former World Series of Poker champion and author, Annie Duke, explains how poker is a pertinent model system for decision making in the real world, a system which blends imperfect information with some unknown percentage of both luck and skill. We go through the decision-making matrix, and how we spend most of our energy focusing on just one of the four quadrants at the expense of the learning opportunities that come from the other 75% of situations. Annie also shares how this evaluation of only the bad outcomes (and our tendency to judge others more harshly than ourselves in the face of a non-status quo decision), leads individuals, leaders, and teams to avoid bad outcomes at all costs. This avoidance is at the cost of the types of decisions which lead to progress and innovation both personally, and societally, across many realms from poker to sports to business to medicine. We also dive deep into a framework for learning, and the levels of thought required to rise to the top of a given domain. Finally, we talk about something that resonated deeply with me in terms of how I think about extending healthspan, which is the concept of “backcasting”. We discuss: Annie’s background, favorite sports teams, and Peter’s affinity for Belichick [7:30]; Chess vs. poker: Which is a better metaphor for decision making in life (and medicine)? [12:30]; Thinking probabilistically: Why we aren’t wired that way, and how you can improve it for better decision making [18:15]; Variable reinforcement: The psychological draw of poker that keeps people playing [25:15]; The role of luck and skill in poker (and other sports), and the difference between looking at the short run vs. long run [38:00]; A brief explanation of Texas hold ‘em [47:00]; The added complexity of reading the behavior of others players in poker [53:15]; Why Annie likes to “quit fast”, and why poker is still popular despite the power of loss aversion [58:30]; Limit vs. no limit poker, and how the game has changed with growing popularity [1:01:00]; The advent of analytics to poker, and why Annie would get crushed against today’s professionals [1:10:30]; The decision matrix, and the ‘resulting’ heuristic: The simplifier we use to judge the quality of decisions —The Pete Carroll Superbowl play call example [1:16:30]; The personal and societal consequences of avoiding bad outcomes [1:27:00]; Poker as a model system for life [1:37:15]; How many leaders are making (and encouraging) status-quo decisions, and how Bill Belichick’s decision making changed after winning two Super Bowls [1:41:00]; What did we learn about decision making from the Y2K nothingburger? And how about the D-Day invasion? [1:46:30]; The first step to becoming a good decision maker [1:48:45]; The difference between elite poker players and the ones who make much slower progress [1:55:30]; Framework for learning a skill, the four levels of thought, and why we hate digging into our victories to see what happened [1:58:15]; The capacity for self-deception, and when it is MOST important to apply four-level thinking [2:06:15]; Soft landings: The challenge of high-level thinking where there is subtle feedback and wider skill gaps [2:16:45]; The benefits of ‘backcasting’ (and doing pre-mortems) [2:19:30]; Parting advice from Annie for those feeling overwhelmed (and two book recommendations) [2:28:30]; and More. Learn more at www.PeterAttiaMD.com Connect with Peter on Facebook | Twitter | Instagram.

Annie Duke, a World Series poker champion, discusses the power of knowing when to quit. She talks about why 'never give up!' is terrible advice, the sunk cost fallacy, and how to distinguish between a worthy pursuit and a lost cause.

Can you get better at decision-making with practice? Many founders, investors, and builders must make many critical decisions, big and small, every day, and improving the quality of your decision-making process can become a big competitive advantage. In this episode from October 2020, expert decision strategist, author and professional poker player, Annie Duke, joins a16z managing partner Jeff Jordan, to discuss some of the frameworks, strategies, and tactics for better decision-making by both individuals and organizations that she outlines in her second book, How to Decide. This was Annie’s second appearance on the podcast – she first joined a16z co-founder Marc Andreessen and host Sonal Chokshi to discuss her first book, Thinking in Bets, where they  went deep into how to frame taking risks and placing bets, especially in the context of innovation. You can read the full transcript of this episode here, and you can read the transcript of Annie's first episode on the a16z Podcast with Marc Andreessen here. 

Ryan talks to World Series of Poker champion Annie Duke about her new book Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away, the power of walking away from things that don’t align with your beliefs, the importance of making decisions in service of a larger goal, and more.Annie Duke is a former professional poker player and a bestselling author. She is an expert in cognitive psychology and co-founded the non-profit Ante Up for Africa in 2007 to benefit charities working in African nations. Her recent book, How To Decide, details how to be a more confident decision-maker. 📕 Ryan Holiday's new book "Discipline Is Destiny" is out now! We’ve extended the pre-order bonuses for the next week—among them is a signed and numbered page from the original manuscript of the book. You can learn more about those and how to receive them over at Dailystoic.com/preorder. ✉️  Sign up for the Daily Stoic email: https://dailystoic.com/dailyemail📱 Follow us: Instagram, Twitter, YouTube, TikTok, FacebookSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Former professional poker player Annie Duke joins Howard Marks to discuss decision-making, luck, decision quality, and uncertainty. They explore the importance of diverse perspectives, improving decision quality over time, risk management, and the challenges of using probabilities for decision-making.

Annie Duke, former professional poker player and best-selling author, joins Howard Marks to discuss decision-making under uncertainty, separating outcomes from decision quality, improving decision-making through diverse perspectives, the significance of intellectual humility and risk management, quantifying subjective judgments, and exploring risk and the diversity of outcomes.

Explore the connection between games and investing, emphasizing skill development and informed choices. Delve into active investing complexity, handicapping in betting, and fair odds determination. Analyze investing through betting systems, lessons in investment strategy, and risk management parallels between gambling and investing.

From politics to sports to business, we tend to glorify those who persevere, show grit, never give up. But former professional poker player and consultant Annie Duke argues that there is also great value in quitting — whether it’s a project, job, career, or company. She walks us through the biases that keep us stuck in the status quo even when other paths would be more fruitful and explains how to make better decisions. Duke is the author of Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away.

Annie Duke, professional poker player and decision-making expert, discusses the challenges of quitting, sunk costs, expected value in investing, examining past decisions, understanding and modeling facts, and embracing luck to make better decisions.

“Don’t be a quitter!” “Quitters never win, and winners never quit!”These maxims encapsulate our usual attitude towards quitting, which is to see it as a bad thing, a weakness, a character defect. We celebrate those who stick with things, who have grit.But my guest would say that quit and grit are just two sides of the same coin, and that quitting is a valuable skill to learn and get good at. Her name is Annie Duke, and she’s a former professional poker player, a speaker, a consultant, and an author. In her latest book, Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away, she seeks to rehabilitate quitting by showing how — whether it’s in the context of ending a relationship, leaving a job, or climbing a mountain — it has essential benefits. We discuss those benefits in today’s show, as well as how to know when to quit. We unpack how whether you should stick with something comes down to an equation of its positive “expected value,” how setting goals too rigidly can get in the way of our being able to assess that value, and the cognitive biases that keep you from quitting when you should. We end our conversation with two strategies for overcoming these biases, including establishing “kill criteria” to give yourself a timetable for how long to go after an aim.Resources Related to the EpisodeAnnie’s previous appearances on the show:#685: How to Decide#387: Think Like a Poker Player to Make Better DecisionsPodcast #210: Got Grit? (With Angela Duckworth)Connect With Annie DukeAnnie’s Website

Annie Duke is angry that quitting gets such a bad rap. Instead of our relentless focus on grit and "going for it," the former professional poker player, decision strategist, and author of Quit wants us to recognize the costs associated with sticking to a losing outcome. Listen as she explains to EconTalk host Russ Roberts how society's conflation of grit with character has made quitting unnecessarily hard, and why our desire for certainty harms our decision-making ability. Additional topics include the flawed mental accounting that makes us confuse wins for losses, what we can learn from ants, and the tragic story of how the refusal to quit cost 16 lives one terrible night at the top of Mt. Everest.

In a world where sticking with things is a virtue, today’s author makes the argument for knowing when to walk away. Join Joe & Mike as they attempt to get better at knowing when to hold ’em and when to fold ’em. Links Support the Show LifeTheme Email Course Obsidian University Getaway House Quit by Annie Duke Bookworm #124: Liminal Thinking Bookworm #63: Atomic Habits Personal Retreat Handbook Bookworm #171: The Gap and The Gain Bookworm #114: Thinking in Bets Excellent Advice for Living by Kevin Kelly The Art of Clear Thinking by Hasard Lee Bookworm #32: The Art of Thinking Clearly Bookworm sweatshirt Bookworm YouTube channel Join the Club Recommend a Book Book List Leave a Review Mike's Rating: 4.5Cory's Rating: 5.0

IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN: 12:49 - How Annie Duke got sick, quit academia, & became a professional poker player. 18:24 - How poker taught her to “embrace uncertainty” & recognize the limits of what we know. 27:26 - How a legendary poker champion taught her to think more rationally about luck & loss. 37:45 - Why it’s important to think probabilistically—and how to strengthen this skill. 41:49 - How Annie helped a venture capital firm to improve its decision-making process. 44:54 - What skills & insights can be transferred from the game of poker to the game of investing. 51:36 - Why Annie never owned Bitcoin or NFTs. 55:13 - How to develop “kill criteria” that will help you decide when to sell an investment. 1:00:31 - Why we tend to make terrible investment decisions when we’re losing money.  1:06:29 - How to think rationally about whether to quit your job. 1:12:11 - How our sense of identity & tribalism can wreck our ability to revise our beliefs. 1:27:53 - Why Daniel Kahneman has a “quitting coach”—and why you should have one, too. 1:42:18 - Why it’s invaluable to open your mind to other people’s dissenting views. Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, and the other community members. Annie Duke’s new book, “Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away.”  Annie’s previous bestsellers, “Thinking in Bets” & “How to Decide” William Green’s book, “Richer, Wiser, Happier” – read the reviews of this book. William Green’s Twitter. Related Episode: The Mind Of A World Poker Champion W/ Annie Duke - TIP231. NEW TO THE SHOW? Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts.  SPONSORSSupport our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: River Toyota Sun Life The Bitcoin Way Range Rover Sound Advisory BAM Capital Fidelity SimpleMining Briggs & Riley Public Shopify Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fmSupport our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fmSupport our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fmSupport our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fmSupport our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fmSupport our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fmSupport our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fmSupport our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fmSupport our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fmSupport our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fmSupport our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fmSupport our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fmSupport our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fmSupport our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fmSupport our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoicesSupport our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

Annie Duke is author, corporate speaker, and consultant in the decision-making space. For two decades, Annie was one of the top poker players in the world. In 2004, she bested a field of 234 players to win her first World Series of Poker bracelet. The same year, she triumphed in the $2 million winner-take-all, invitation-only World Series of Poker Tournament of Champions. She retired from the game in 2012. Annie is author of multiple wonderful books, including Thinking in Bets, How We Decide, and her latest being Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away. In this episode, Annie talks about why life is like poker and not chess, how to make sound decisions, the power of quitting, and much more. To know more about this initiative, check out: https://www.vishalkhandelwal.com/ https://www.safalniveshak.com/ To know more about my book - The Sketchbook of Wisdom - which Morgan Housel calls "a masterpiece," please visit - https://book.safalniveshak.com  

Former professional poker player Annie Duke has a new book on Steve’s favorite subject: quitting. They talk about why quitting is so hard, how to do it sooner, and why we feel shame when we do something that’s good for us. 

#81: Professional decision-maker, Annie Duke, joins Chris to talk about making better decisions. They discuss why learning the difference between luck and the quality of decisions is so important and how that can improve your life and your career, ways to improve your quitting skills, and what forces work against good quitting behavior. They also cover why so many people struggle with the decision to walk away, how to use kill criteria to determine when to quit a project, a job, or some other endeavor, and a lot more.Annie Duke (@AnnieDuke) is a best-selling author and professional decision strategist. Her 2018 bestseller, Thinking in Bets, has helped countless people make better decisions, and her latest book is Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away.Full show notes at: https://allthehacks.com/decision-making-annie-duke Partner Deals Vuori: 20% off the most comfortable performance apparel I've ever wornMasterClass: Learn from the world's best with 15% offPacaso: Free early access to listings and $2,500+ in closing creditsFor all the deals, discounts and promo codes from our partners, go to: allthehacks.com/dealsResources MentionedConnect with Annie Duke: Website | TwitterAnnie Duke’s Resources: Books: Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices All the Hacks Podcast: FOMO, FOBO and How To Make Great Decisions with Patrick McGinnisResources Mentioned:  Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Into Thin Air: A Personal Account of the Mt. Everest Disaster Grit: The Power of Passion and Perseverance Astro Teller on Moonshots for Alphabet's X (Monkeys and pedestals 25:08) Knowns vs Unknowns — Are you building a successful company or just typing?  Full Show Notes(1:20) Luck vs. Decision Quality: Learning the Difference(5:44) Improving Hiring Decisions and Positive Outcomes(9:11) Understanding and Calculating Base Rate(13:29) Enhancing Decision Information with Independent Viewpoints(21:08) Encouraging Honest Opinions and Feedback(28:00) Shifting Mindset from Sunk Cost Fallacy(30:12) Advanced Planning, Kill Criteria, Stop-Loss Orders(32:02) Example of Kill Criteria(33:24) Finding a Qualified Quitting Coach(41:49) Viewing Life as Bets and Making Things Explicit(47:35) Side-Effects of Explicit Decision-Making(51:41) Handling Emotional Angst in Decisions(54:41) Menu Decision Strategy(58:31) The Challenge of Quitting Decisions(1:04:55) Astro Teller's Mental Model: Monkeys and Pedestals(1:07:01) Identifying Known Unknowns(1:07:57) Connect with Annie Duke OnlineConnect with All the HacksAll the Hacks: Newsletter | Website | Membership | EmailChris Hutchins: Twitter | Instagram | Website | LinkedInEditor’s Note: The content on this page is accurate as of the posting date; however, some of our partner offers may have expired. Opinions expressed here are the author's alone, not those of any bank, credit card issuer, hotel, airline, or other entity. This content has not been reviewed, approved or otherwise endorsed by any of the entities included within the post. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

I recently sat down for a live event and Q&A with the great Annie Duke to discuss her new book, Quit: The power of knowing when to walk away. This episode is the audio from that event. Quit is all about how to develop a very particular skill: how to train your brain to make it easier to know which goals and plans are worth sticking to and which are not. - Toronto Live Event: https://www.eventbrite.ca/e/how-minds-change-a-conversation-lab-with-david-mcraney-misha-glouberman-tickets-410047431907- How Minds Change: www.davidmcraney.com/howmindschangehome- Show Notes: www.youarenotsosmart.com- Newsletter: https://davidmcraney.substack.com- Annie Duke's Twitter: https://twitter.com/AnnieDuke  

My guest this week is with Annie Duke, and the topic of our discussion is how to improve decision making. We break decisions down into their component parts: values, beliefs, decisions, randomness, and outcomes. After diving into each, we discuss how to make better decisions, how to work in group settings, and how to harness power of tribes and identity to improve our behavior. Annie has thought about this as much as anyone, and her various tricks for getting us to think in probabilities and to stop evaluating decisions based on outcomes that have been tainted by randomness will be useful for anyone listening. Please enjoy. For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast. Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub. Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag   Show Notes 1:23 - (First Question) – Why people don’t take the best investing advice 2:11 – Investing tribes             4:21 – Jay Van Bavel twitter 6:34 – Rule setting as a way of crafting an investment strategy 11:13 – How much control do we have in choosing our values   15:52 – Anatomy of a decision 19:28 – Her concept of resulting 26:47 -  How beliefs impact your decision making 34:28 – Tact’s for making the best decision 42:40 – Ego and decision making 47:06 – People who are exceptional at changing their decision making 48:18 – How often do people who change their decision making, stick with the rules of the game             50:07 – Finite and Infinite Games 50:28 – Psychology of making decision that involves other people 59:20 -  Never close doors on other people 1:01:57 – Best decision that Annie made 1:04:24 – Kindest thing anyone has done for Annie   Learn More For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.  Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub Follow Patrick on twitter at @patrick_oshag

Former professional poker player turned coach and author Annie Duke joins the podcast to discuss the psychology of decision-making. Topics include the factors that lead to bad decision-making, the impact of blind spots and biases on decision patterns, and practical strategies for making better decisions.

In “Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away,” cognitive scientist turned professional poker player turned bestselling author Annie Duke says mastering the art of quitting is the key to making smart decisions.(This episode originally aired in October 2022.)Host: Rufus GriscomGuest: Annie DukeExecutive Producer: Caleb Bissinger• Want to check out the video e-course Annie made for “Quit”? Download The Next Big Idea app!

Ryan looks back on some of the best discussions of 2022 that he and his guests had about building better habits. Featuring Dr. Nate Zinsser on looking for the positive aspects of your life while maintaining objective awareness, Josh Peck on his journey getting sober, Annie Duke on the power of walking away from things that don’t align with your beliefs, Amy Morin on overcoming mentally challenging situations by gaining perspective, Paul Bloom on the importance of recognizing our own bias, and Yung Pueblo on why serving the common good is the most valuable metric to measure great work by.To develop better habits in your own life, check out Session 2 of the New Year New You Challenge on February 1st! Enroll now to secure your spot or gift it to a friend.✉️  Sign up for the Daily Stoic email: https://dailystoic.com/dailyemail🏛 Check out the Daily Stoic Store for Stoic inspired products, signed books, and more.📱 Follow us: Instagram, Twitter, YouTube, TikTok, FacebookSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Our guest is Annie Duke, a retired pro poker player and First Round’s Special Partner focused on Decision Science. She’s also the author of the bestselling book, “Thinking in Bets.”In today’s conversation, we’re talking about her follow-up to that book, titled “Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away,” which was just released this week.Quitting is not a popular topic in startup circles and history is marked by success stories of founders who refused to quit, even when just about every signal was telling them to do so.But Annie offers a counterintuitive approach. She dives into all the misconceptions about quitting, and makes the case that it can actually be a superpower, rather than a weakness. Annie explores the psychology behind why it’s so hard to walk away, and tactically what folks can do to get a clearer picture of the decisions ahead of them, rather than being clouded by biases. She also offers specific advice for advice-givers who are trying to nudge someone to change course, with tested tips for getting your message across gently, yet firmly.And after the episode be sure to check out “Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away.”You can follow Annie on Twitter at @AnnieDuke.You can email us questions directly at review@firstround.com or follow us on Twitter @ twitter.com/firstround and twitter.com/brettberson

Annie Duke, author of Quit: The power of knowing when to walk away, discusses the importance of quitting and decision making, the benefits of therapy, the game 'katamari,' and the difficulty of separating identity from beliefs.

Annie Duke is a former professional poker player and the author of National Bestseller, "Thinking in Bets" & "How To Decide". During her poker playing days, Annie was a World Series of Poker bracelet winner, the winner of the 2004 Tournament of Champions and the only woman to win the NBC National Poker Heads Up Championship. Today, Annie is also the founder of How I Decide, a non-profit that creates curricula and tools to improve decision making and critical thinking skills for under-served middle schoolers. In Today’s Episode You Will Learn: 1.) How Annie made her way from professional poker player to National Bestselling author and coach to the world's leading investors? 2.) How does Annie evaluate the nature of risk? What is good risk vs bad risk? How does Annie think through reversible vs irreversible decisions? What is her framework? Why does Annie believe most irreversible decisions are actually reversible? How does it change your thinking? 3.) How does effective solo-decision-making differ from effective group decision-making? What decision-making biases does Annie often see venture being guilty of making? What 3 things can one do to improve the decision-making of the collective group? 4.) How does Annie think about sunk cost? How does one know when enough is enough and you have to walk away? How does this tie into Annie's thinking on portfolio theory? How does Annie think about pre-mortems? How should they be structured? What is included? 5.) How does Annie define critical thinking? What tips would Annie give to someone in really advancing their level of critical thinking? What behaviours can one implement to seek to protect critical thinking? How does this differ in team environments? Item’s Mentioned In Today’s Episode Annie’s Favourite Book: The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing As always you can follow Harry and The Twenty Minute VC on Twitter here! Likewise, you can follow Harry on Instagram here for mojito madness and all things 20VC.

Annie Duke (@AnnieDuke) is a World Series poker champion, Ante Up for Africa co-founder, public speaker, and author of Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts. What We Discuss with Annie Duke: Thinking in Bets isn't really about poker -- and neither is this episode. Two things that determine the quality of our lives: the quality of our decisions and luck; we'll learn to understand the difference between the two. Common mistakes we make when evaluating decisions, namely something called resulting -- which all of us do -- which leads to worse decision quality over time. How we can become better belief calibrators, and why this helps us mitigate bias in our thinking and in our decision-making process. How Annie and other world champion poker players have formed decision-making pods with one another to help them get better at decision quality and strategy, and how you can do the same. And much more... Sign up for Six-Minute Networking -- our free networking and relationship development mini course -- at jordanharbinger.com/course!  Like this show? Please leave us a review here -- even one sentence helps! Consider including your Twitter handle so we can thank you personally! Full show notes and resources can be found here.

Annie Duke: Quit Annie Duke is an author, corporate speaker, and consultant in the decision-making space, as well as Special Partner focused on Decision Science at First Round Capital Partners, a seed stage venture fund. Her previous book, Thinking in Bets, is a national bestseller. As a former professional poker player, she has won more than $4 million in tournament poker. During her career, Annie won a World Series of Poker bracelet and is the only woman to have won the World Series of Poker Tournament of Champions and the NBC National Poker Heads-Up Championship. She retired from the game in 2012. Prior to becoming a professional poker player, she was awarded a National Science Foundation Fellowship to study Cognitive Psychology at the University of Pennsylvania. Annie is the co-founder of The Alliance for Decision Education, a non-profit whose mission is to improve lives by empowering students through decision skills education. She is a member of the National Board of After-School All-Stars and the Board of Directors of the Franklin Institute. She also serves on the board of the Renew Democracy Initiative. Annie is the author of Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away*. We’ve all heard the lie that, “Winners never quit and quitters never win.” In reality, one of the best practices to develop is how to recognize more quickly when you should quit something that’s not working. In this conversation, Annie and I discuss how to set kill criteria for yourself and frame goals in more helpful ways to know when quitting is the best answer. Key Points Kenny Rogers was right; professional poker players know that a big part of success is quitting approximately 75% of the time. “Quit while you’re ahead” is often poor advice since we tend to quit too early when good things are happening. On the contrary, we tend to quit too late when we’ve accumulated sunk cost. Determine kill criteria in advance when you’re not as likely to be swayed by the emotions of the moment. The best criteria contain both a state and a date. Find someone who loves you but doesn’t care about your feelings. Trust and permission are essential to open up these kinds of conversations. Effective goals include at least one “unless…” Resources Mentioned Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away* by Annie Duke Interview Notes Download my interview notes in PDF format (free membership required). Related Episodes How to Pivot Quickly, with Steve Blank (episode 476) The Way to Make Better Decisions, with Annie Duke (episode 499) How to Build Confidence, with Katy Milkman (episode 533) Discover More Activate your free membership for full access to the entire library of interviews since 2011, searchable by topic.

Annie Duke dropped out of a PhD program in cognitive psychology– and went on to win the World Series of Poker. At the Authors@Wharton Series, Adam and Annie discuss the evidence on when to pull the plug, delve into decision-making lessons from psychology and poker, and examine the difference between rethinking an idea and leaving it behind. Annie’s latest book “Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away” is out now. Transcripts for ReThinking are available at go.ted.com/RWAGscripts

Annie Duke, expert in decision making and uncertainty, discusses how to make smart decisions and embrace uncertainty. She emphasizes the importance of assessing what you know and don't know, and addresses the loose relationship between outcomes and decision quality. Duke explores wicked environments, self-serving bias, illusion of control, and the impact of intelligence on decision making. She also emphasizes the dangers of being complacent and close-minded, and highlights the need to embrace uncertainty in order to make better decisions.

If you’ve ever lost a job, or been through a breakup, or failed an exam, you’ll know that the aftermath can be painful and disorienting. But for some percentage of those who experience these disappointing outcomes, unforeseen opportunities will arise.In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, we look at the occasional upside of being forced to quit a career, or a relationship, or even a favorite route to work.Kassia St. Clair brings us the story of William Henry Perkin. As a young man in 19th-century London, Perkin had set his sights on a career in chemistry and medicine. He devoted his time and energy to the search for a treatment for malaria, which was a growing problem around the world. Unfortunately, he failed in his quest, but his failure opened the door to a surprising new discovery that transformed an entire industry.Kassia St. Clair is a design journalist and the author of The Secret Lives of Color. Next, Annie Duke joins Katy to explain how events like a shutdown of the London subway system, or the COVID-19 pandemic, can sometimes surface new and previously unexplored options. She also discusses how our identities can be wrapped up in our choices, blinding us to alternatives that may actually serve us better.Annie Duke is a speaker and decision strategist. She’s also the author of How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices. Finally, Katy explains that while giving up on important jobs, relationships, or habits may not always be the best option, the behavioral bias of escalation of commitment can cause us to experiment and explore too little in life.Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.Important DisclosuresAll expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions.The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.All corporate names are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.The book How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the book and makes no representations about its content.(1022-29HP)

Anticipating and planning for obstacles can sometimes be more powerful than adopting a positive mindset.A positive attitude is important when embarking on any new endeavor. However, as you may have heard in previous episodes of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, overoptimism also can blind you to important information.In this episode, we look at a strategy that can help counteract the effects of overoptimism and overconfidence. You could call it the power of negative thinking.We begin with the amazing story of a lake in Louisiana that completely disappeared in a matter of hours. An oil drilling accident in 1980 created a giant sinkhole in Lake Peigneur that rapidly drained massive amounts of water into an active salt mine, swallowing several boats and barges and large chunks of land in the process. The event was catastrophic, but no lives were lost, thanks in part to robust emergency planning.You’ll hear first-hand accounts of the dramatic event from Michael Richard, Sr., whose family owns and operates a garden and a nursery on the shores of Lake Peigneur, and from Dr. Kelvin Wu, who describes the scene in the salt mine as the disaster unfolded.Dr. Kelvin Wu is a retired mining engineer and former chief of the Mine Waste & Geotechnical Engineering Division at the Mine Safety and Health Administration.Michael Richard, Sr., owns and runs Rip Van Winkle Gardens and Live Oak Gardens on Lake Peigneur, Louisiana.Emergency planning played an important role in the outcome of this disaster. But planning for the worst needn’t be limited to life and death scenarios.Annie Duke joins Katy to argue that negative thinking—imagining failure in order to manage or prevent it— can actually help improve the odds of success when planning anything from a product launch to a birthday party. She argues that people shy away from negative thinking because it can feel unpleasant. But if you push through that unpleasantness, negative thinking can motivate you to take positive preemptive steps.Annie Duke is an author and decision strategist. You can read more about negative thinking in her book How to Decide.Finally, Katy differentiates negative thinking from pessimistic thinking. While pessimistic thinking can drain motivation and prevent you from setting goals, negative thinking can help you identify certain problems before they arise and raise your chances of success.Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the series, visit schwab.com/podcast.If you enjoy the show, please leave a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ rating or review on Apple Podcasts.Important DisclosuresAll expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions.The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.The book, How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be, is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the book and makes no representations about its content.Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC.Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB.(1021-1UD8)

original episode notes and transcript here: https://future.a16z.com/podcasts/innovating-in-bets/Longtime podcast showrunner (2014-2022), primary host, and editor Sonal Chokshi shares three best-of episodes as she shifts gears and the show goes on hiatus until relaunched with a new host. The second of these three special rerun episodes is a conversation that originally took place spring/summer 2019, pre-pandemic (ah, that we could remember that time!) – between a16z co-founder Marc Andreessen and Sonal interviewing author, consultant/advisor, and former pro poker player Annie Duke, on one of her first few appearances with us. It’s a conversation quite unlike her other conversations, and one in a series of special joint interviews Marc and Sonal did. So there's a lot of high-speed talking, but the three cover a broad range of topics relevant to both businesses and individuals: on skill vs luck, on outcomes vs process, on asking the right questions, on how to communicate in probabilities within an organization or team, and, on how NOT making a decision is also a decision and why that matters. Be sure to also check out this feed for the followup conversation with Annie, Jeff Jordan, and Sonal on the specifics of HOW to Decide as well -- the practical and organizational implementations. (Because the a16z Podcast became an early go-to for book authors to release their books, Annie agreed to share her next book with us first.) But overall, these evergreen episodes are really all about INNOVATION, which is another signature theme in defining the identity of the a16z Podcast…

Recently at Lux in New York City, Josh Wolfe invited three celebrated decision and risk specialists for a lunch to discuss the latest academic research and empirical insights from the world of psychology and decision sciences. Our lunch included Danny Kahneman, who won the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics for his work on decision sciences. His book Thinking Fast and Slow has been a major bestseller and summarizes much of his work in the field. We also had Annie Duke, a World Series of Poker champion who researches cognitive psychology at the University of Pennsylvania. Her books How to Decide and Thinking in Bets have also been tremendously influential best sellers, and she is also the co-founder of the Alliance for Decision Education. Also joining us was Michael Mauboussin, the Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global and who has also taught finance for decades at Columbia. His book More Than You Know is similarly a major bestseller. In part three of our risk, bias and decision making lunch, Annie Duke, Michael Mauboussin, Danny Kahneman, and Josh Wolfe discuss optimism, base rates, overcoming negative expected values, population versus individual risks, calibrating risk assessments, and infectious amplification of optimism within groups.

It’s been said that life is a series of decisions. But life is complex and filled with randomness and uncertainty. How do you make decisions when 1) you don’t know everything you need to know to make the optimal decision, and 2) the factors influencing your decision are constantly changing? My guest today suggests thinking like a poker player.Her name is Annie Duke. She’s a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant. In her book "Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts," she shares insights from her career as a professional poker player on how to make smart decisions in the face of uncertainty. We begin our conversation discussing why life is more like poker than chess and why you should never judge the quality of a decision by the results. She then shares insights on why you need to factor in luck, both good and bad, when you’re making decisions and how thinking of your decisions as bets can make you feel more comfortable with uncertainty. Annie and I then discuss some of the biases that prevent humans from thinking probabilistically, and why probabilistic thinking can make you more compassionate and humble. She then makes the case that thinking of your political opinions as bets is one way to moderate our increasingly polarized society. We end our conversation discussing how leaders can use the ideas from her book to help the groups they lead make better decisions.This is a fascinating show filled with actionable insights that you can use right away.Get the complete show notes at aom.is/thinkinginbets.

Renowned decision-making expert Annie Duke discusses practical tools and strategies to improve decision-making, emphasizing the reversibility of choices and the importance of evaluating past decisions. The podcast delves into topics like high school social groups, privilege, and luck, and explores the power of negative thinking in achieving positive outcomes.

Recently at Lux in New York City, Josh Wolfe invited three celebrated decision and risk specialists for a lunch to discuss the latest academic research and empirical insights from the world of psychology and decision sciences. Our lunch included Daniel Kahneman, who won the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics for his work on decision sciences. His book Thinking Fast and Slow has been a major bestseller and summarizes much of his work in the field. We also had Annie Duke, a World Series of Poker champion who researches cognitive psychology at the University of Pennsylvania. Her books How to Decide and Thinking in Bets have also been tremendously influential best sellers, and she is also the co-founder of the Alliance for Decision Education. Also joining us was Michael Mauboussin, the Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global and who has also taught finance for decades at Columbia. His book More Than You Know is similarly a major bestseller. This is an edited four-part series from our lunch seminar, with each part covering one topic of the conversation for easier listening. In this first part, we discuss the concept of pre-mortems, an approach of looking at the outcome of our decision and if it were to fail, why we think it would fail. It’s an approach that’s designed to overcome groupthink and avoid the fact that pessimists are really unpopular in group decision-making sessions. However, recent research has shown that they don’t always help people and groups change their mind. We look at pre-mortems, prospective hindsight, legitimizing dissent, self-serving bias and pre-parade or backcasts to see how this tool can affect and improve decision-making given the most recent academic literature.

#424: We’re taught to stay in the game.Persist. Be gritty. Try, try again.But sometimes, the best decision is to walk away. Move on.How do you know when that’s right? When should you double-down … and when should you fold?Today’s guest, Annie Duke, won more than $4 million as a professional poker champion. She wrote the bestselling book Thinking in Bets and co-founded a nonprofit that teaches kids decision-making skills.Her most recent book, “Quit: The Power of Knowing When To Walk Away,” teaches the behavioral science, mental models and recognition of cognitive biases needed to successfully quit.It highlights real-world examples of startup founders, athletes, mountaineers, and entertainers who either quit – or didn’t – and explains how to make a wise, grounded choice.She joins us on today’s episode to describe the forces that hold us back from quitting – and how to recognize when quitting could lead to a better life.For more information, visit the show notes at https://affordanything.com/episode424 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In the second part of our discussion on the book Thinking in Bets, by Annie Duke, we talk about how to make better decisions when uncertainty is certain.This week’s episode is sponsored by:CuriosityStream (+ Nebula!): CuriosityStream is the best place on the internet for high-quality documentaries, and it now comes with access to this podcast and a ton of other great content, ad-free, on Nebula. If you use the link https://curiositystream.com/inforiumpod/ you'll also get 26% off your first annual subscription.Brilliant: Accelerate your learning in math, science, and computer science. Start learning for free at https://brilliant.org/Inforium — and if you’re one of the first 200 people to use this link, you’ll also get 20% off your subscription.Full show notes: https://theinforium.com/thinking-in-bets-decisions/Find us elsewhere:Thomas on Twitter: https://twitter.com/tomfranklyThomas on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tomfrankly/Martin on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/yomartholomew/Martin on Twitter: https://twitter.com/yomartholomewYou can get a free copy of my book, 10 Steps to Earning Awesome Grades (While Studying Less), by staying up to date with the College Info Geek newsletter: http://collegeinfogeek.com/get-better-grades/See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Annie Duke believes we should be quitting things more often, a skill she honed during her lucrative years as a professional poker player on the world stage. Annie talks about the science of quitting, and shows us how to get out of our own way and learn to quit when we should. You can follow the show on Instagram @DrMayaShankar. If you’d like to keep up with the most recent news from this and other Pushkin podcasts be sure to sign up for our email list at Pushkin.fm.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Annie Duke is a professional poker player and an author.The quality of our life depends upon the quality of our decisions. As a poker player who has competed at the biggest tournaments in the world, Annie understands the value of making good decisions under pressure.Expect to learn how to become a great decision maker, why trusting your gut is dangerous, how to account for luck, Annie's framework for making successful & repeatable decisions and much more...Sponsor:Get 10% off all LipoLife & Jigsaw Health products at https://naturesfix.co.uk/modernwisdom/ (use code MODERNWISDOM)Extra Stuff:Buy How To Decide - https://amzn.to/3jJMHkSFollow Annie on Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnnieDuke Check out to Annie's Website - https://www.alliancefordecisioneducation.org/ Get my free Ultimate Life Hacks List to 10x your daily productivity → https://chriswillx.com/lifehacks/To support me on Patreon (thank you): https://www.patreon.com/modernwisdom-Get in touch. Join the discussion with me and other like minded listeners in the episode comments on the MW YouTube Channel or message me...Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/chriswillxTwitter: https://www.twitter.com/chriswillxYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/ModernWisdomPodcastEmail: https://www.chriswillx.com/contact  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Former professional poker player and decision-making expert, Annie Duke, discusses the six steps to a comprehensive decision framework, the power of negative thinking, group decision-making, and the balance between positive thinking and realistic considerations in decision-making.

Learn the key points of better decision-making from former professional poker player Annie Duke. Discover the pitfalls of using pro/cons lists, the importance of decision trees, and the benefits of negative thinking. Enhance your decision-making process with insights from Annie's new book, 'How to Decide'.

Annie Duke, an author and former championship poker player with over $4 million in winnings, shares her insights on decision-making in uncertain environments. She discusses the balance of risk and reward, and how lessons from poker apply to everyday dilemmas. Duke emphasizes the importance of recognizing the right time to quit, challenging cultural beliefs about quitting versus commitment. With her background in cognitive psychology, she explores the value of mentorship over money, and how to navigate tough choices in both poker and life.

Annie Duke, author of 'Thinking in Bets' and former professional poker player, shares her insights on decision-making in uncertain situations. She argues that life resembles poker more than chess, emphasizing the role of strategy, luck, and personal experiences in our choices. The discussion covers the importance of calculated risks, navigating life's uncertainties, and how past decisions can inform better futures. Duke illustrates the complexities of renting versus buying and the emotional nuances in making choices, all while encouraging listeners to embrace uncertainty.