In this engaging conversation, Annie Duke, a former pro poker player and author of "Thinking in Bets" and "Quit," shares her insights on decision-making. She discusses lessons learned from Daniel Kahneman, the power of pre-mortems, and effective strategies like the nominal group technique. Annie emphasizes the complexities of quitting wisely, using real-world examples to illustrate her points. She also highlights the importance of inclusivity and structured processes for crafting better decisions in both personal and professional contexts.

Venkatesh Rao, an author focused on decision-making principles, joins a stellar lineup featuring Maria Konnikova, a psychologist and professional poker player, and Patrick Collison, CEO of Stripe. They delve into the three types of decision-makers and the impact of emotions on choices. Annie Duke and Tobi Lutke share insights on using mental models and self-reflection to enhance decision-making. The discussion emphasizes adaptability, collaborative strategies, and the role of conversations in refining thoughts and improving outcomes in both life and business.

Annie Duke, a decision strategist and World Series of Poker champion, dives into the art of decision-making under uncertainty. She reveals how poker serves as a model for real-world decisions, blending luck and skill. Duke discusses our narrow focus in decision matrices and the consequences of risk aversion on innovation. She introduces backcasting as a powerful planning tool, linking future visions to present actions. With her unique insights, she challenges listeners to think probabilistically and embrace diverse learning opportunities for better outcomes.

Annie Duke, a former professional poker player and author of "Thinking in Bets," brings her unique insights on decision-making in uncertain environments. She shares how her background in psychology shaped her approach to poker, embracing the dual nature of losses as opportunities for growth. Annie discusses the importance of mental models and the influence of peer groups on learning. She emphasizes the value of accepting uncertainty in communication and decision-making, ultimately advocating for a mindset that thrives on constructive feedback and collaborative environments.

Annie Duke, a former professional poker player and author known for her insights on decision-making, shares her journey and the concept of quitting in this engaging discussion. She reveals the significance of base rates for better investment choices and how to close feedback loops in long-term investing. Duke emphasizes the role of 'kill criteria' in identifying when to exit a failing investment and advocates for using a quitting coach to challenge our cherished ideas. Dive into her unique blend of poker strategy and investment wisdom!

Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion and author of "Thinking in Bets," dives into the art of decision-making. She discusses how poker serves as a unique model for evaluating choices in uncertain situations, blending luck and skill. Duke emphasizes the importance of embracing all decision-making scenarios, rather than only focusing on negative outcomes. Introducing concepts like 'backcasting,' she offers strategies for setting long-term goals while recognizing the role of cognitive biases. Tune in for insights that apply across various fields from business to sports!

Annie Duke, a World Series poker champion, discusses the power of knowing when to quit. She talks about why 'never give up!' is terrible advice, the sunk cost fallacy, and how to distinguish between a worthy pursuit and a lost cause.

Annie Duke, an expert in decision-making, joins to share insightful strategies for long-term investing. She discusses the crucial need to filter out market noise and focus on what truly matters. Duke emphasizes the importance of embracing disconfirming evidence to enhance decision-making. The conversation touches on the impermanence of business success, the necessity of ongoing learning, and the value of building trust and reliability in investments. Expect an engaging discussion filled with practical advice for savvy investors!

Annie Duke, a former professional poker player and bestselling author, shares insights from her new book, *Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away*. She discusses the importance of recognizing when to quit in order to align with personal beliefs and pursue bigger goals. Duke debunks the stigma surrounding quitting, emphasizing it as a strategic tool rather than a failure. The conversation also explores emotional attachments that complicate decision-making, urging listeners to embrace the courage to let go and redirect their efforts toward more fulfilling pursuits.

Former professional poker player Annie Duke joins Howard Marks to discuss decision-making, luck, decision quality, and uncertainty. They explore the importance of diverse perspectives, improving decision quality over time, risk management, and the challenges of using probabilities for decision-making.