Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg Two things shape the course of your life: luck and your decisions (with Annie Duke)
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Jun 5, 2024 
Annie Duke, an acclaimed author and former professional poker player, dives into the art of decision-making. She critiques the common pros and cons lists, revealing how they can mislead rather than clarify. Duke discusses the balance of intuition and calculated risk, emphasizing the need to recognize cognitive biases. She highlights the influence of luck in business and shares insights from high-stakes scenarios like poker. Advocating for decision-making education in schools, Duke believes that improving these skills can enhance both personal and societal outcomes.
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Life's Two Shaping Forces
- Two factors shape our lives: luck and decisions.
- Focus on decision quality, the only controllable factor for better outcomes.
Ditch Pro/Con Lists
- Avoid simple pro/con lists for decisions.
- They amplify biases by not accounting for outcome magnitudes and probabilities.
Embrace Expected Value
- Replace pro/con lists with expected value calculations.
- Weigh potential gains and losses by their probabilities and magnitudes.
