Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg Two things shape the course of your life: luck and your decisions (with Annie Duke)
152 snips
Jun 5, 2024 
Annie Duke, an acclaimed author and former professional poker player, dives into the art of decision-making. She critiques the common pros and cons lists, revealing how they can mislead rather than clarify. Duke discusses the balance of intuition and calculated risk, emphasizing the need to recognize cognitive biases. She highlights the influence of luck in business and shares insights from high-stakes scenarios like poker. Advocating for decision-making education in schools, Duke believes that improving these skills can enhance both personal and societal outcomes.
AI Snips
Chapters
Books
Transcript
Episode notes
Explicit Calculations
- Make expected value calculations explicit, even with uncertainty.
- This improves decision analysis and feedback loops.
Gut Decisions
- Intuitive decisions are still expected value calculations, but often flawed.
- Our gut relies on pattern matching and is susceptible to biases.
Heuristics
- Heuristics, mental shortcuts based on expected value, speed up decisions.
- These can be helpful but also lead to errors in edge cases.
