#123

Mentioned in 101 episodes

Thinking in bets

Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

Book • 2018

In this book, Annie Duke teaches readers how to make better decisions by treating them as 'bets' on uncertain outcomes.

She emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between the quality of a decision and its outcome, acknowledging the role of luck, and avoiding biases such as 'resulting' and hindsight bias.

Duke draws on her experiences as a professional poker player and combines these with insights from cognitive psychology and other fields to provide tools for making more objective and thoughtful decisions.

The book encourages readers to get comfortable with uncertainty, seek truth through diverse opinions, and learn from outcomes to improve future decision-making.

Mentioned by

Lenny Rachitsky

Patrick Campbell

Marc Andreessen

Brian Yelvington

Mentioned in 101 episodes

Mentioned by

Seth Godin

in the context of decision-making and outcomes.

#792: Seth Godin on Playing the Right Game and Strategy as a Superpower

Mentioned by

Lenny Rachitsky

as one of

Annie Duke

's books.

This will make you a better decision maker | Annie Duke (author of “Thinking in Bets” and “Quit”, former pro poker player)

Recommended by

Tom Gayner

as a great book that casts things in probabilistic terms and is relevant to both poker and insurance.

Tom Gayner: Invest Like The Best

Mentioned by

Shane Parrish

as one of her books focused on cognitive behavioral decision science and decision education.

#150 TKP Insights: Making (Even) Better Decisions

Recommended by

Peter Attia

after reading it and finding it insightful for decision-making in medicine.

Improve your decision-making, frameworks for learning, backcasting, and more | Annie Duke (#60 rebroadcast)

Recommended by

Patrick Campbell

for its insights on first principles thinking.

10 lessons on bootstrapping a $200m business | Patrick Campbell (ProfitWell)

Mentioned by

Shane Parrish

as the author of "Thinking in Bets", a book about making smarter decisions.

#37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong

Recommended by

Maggie Crowley

as a resource for understanding decision-making.

Mastering product strategy and growing as a PM | Maggie Crowley (Toast, Drift, Tripadvisor)

Mentioned by

Marc Andreessen

for her term "resulting" in the context of probabilistic domains.

#129 Marc Andreessen: Interview with an Icon

Mentioned by

Peter Attia

when discussing backcasting as a method for long-term planning.

#206 - Exercising for longevity: strength, stability, zone 2, zone 5, and more

Recommended by

Mark Manson

as a book explaining thinking in probabilities, learned from his years playing poker.

How to Get Lucky in Life and Take Smarter Risks

Recommended by

Seth Godin

to understand the lizard brain concept.

Seth Godin on AI, Branding, and Attention

Mentioned by

Howard Marks

for her book "Thinking in Bets", highlighting its relevance to structuring investment decisions as bets.

Howard Marks: Oaktree Capital, Investment philosophy, Risk and Randomness

Mentioned by

Adam Grant

, referencing its advice on decision-making and the importance of not judging choices solely by outcomes.

Knowing when to quit with world poker champion Annie Duke

Mentioned by

Joe Buleg

in comparison to Shane Parrish's book on clear thinking.

182: Clear Thinking by Shane Parrish

Mentioned by

Kyle Grieve

as guides to mastering decision-making in both investing and life.

TIP623: The Art Of Decision Making w/ Annie Duke

Mentioned by

Brian Yelvington

in reference to thinking in bets.

How You Get and Actually Keep a Job at a Multi-Strat Hedge Fund

Mentioned by the podcast host as a national bestseller.

Two things shape the course of your life: luck and your decisions (with Annie Duke)

Recommended by

Clay Finck

as a guide to making better decisions under uncertainty, drawing from the author's experience as a professional poker player.

TIP715: Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke

Mentioned by

Peter Attia

as a book that everyone should read, highlighting its insights on decision-making.

#60 - Annie Duke, decision strategist: Poker as a model system for life—how to improve decision making, use frameworks for learning, and apply ‘backcasting’ to boost your odds for future success

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