#124
Mentioned in 143 episodes

Thinking in bets

Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
Book • 2018
In this book, Annie Duke teaches readers how to make better decisions by treating them as 'bets' on uncertain outcomes.

She emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between the quality of a decision and its outcome, acknowledging the role of luck, and avoiding biases such as 'resulting' and hindsight bias.

Duke draws on her experiences as a professional poker player and combines these with insights from cognitive psychology and other fields to provide tools for making more objective and thoughtful decisions.

The book encourages readers to get comfortable with uncertainty, seek truth through diverse opinions, and learn from outcomes to improve future decision-making.

Mentioned by

Mentioned in 143 episodes

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in the context of decision-making and outcomes.
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as a great book that casts things in probabilistic terms and is relevant to both poker and insurance.
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, it includes a section referencing a study about the accuracy of predictions.
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as the author of "Thinking in Bets", a book about making smarter decisions.
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as a resource for understanding decision-making.
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