#117
Mentioned in 95 episodes
Thinking in bets
Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
Book • 2018
In this book, Annie Duke teaches readers how to make better decisions by treating them as 'bets' on uncertain outcomes.
She emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between the quality of a decision and its outcome, acknowledging the role of luck, and avoiding biases such as 'resulting' and hindsight bias.
Duke draws on her experiences as a professional poker player and combines these with insights from cognitive psychology and other fields to provide tools for making more objective and thoughtful decisions.
The book encourages readers to get comfortable with uncertainty, seek truth through diverse opinions, and learn from outcomes to improve future decision-making.
She emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between the quality of a decision and its outcome, acknowledging the role of luck, and avoiding biases such as 'resulting' and hindsight bias.
Duke draws on her experiences as a professional poker player and combines these with insights from cognitive psychology and other fields to provide tools for making more objective and thoughtful decisions.
The book encourages readers to get comfortable with uncertainty, seek truth through diverse opinions, and learn from outcomes to improve future decision-making.
Mentioned by
Mentioned in 95 episodes
Recommended by 
Tom Gayner as a great book that casts things in probabilistic terms and is relevant to both poker and insurance.
Tom Gayner as a great book that casts things in probabilistic terms and is relevant to both poker and insurance.
833 snips
#186 Tom Gayner: Invest Like The Best
Mentioned by 
Shane Parrish as one of her books focused on cognitive behavioral decision science and decision education.
Shane Parrish as one of her books focused on cognitive behavioral decision science and decision education.
745 snips
#150 TKP Insights: Making (Even) Better Decisions
Recommended by 
Peter Attia after reading it and finding it insightful for decision-making in medicine.
Peter Attia after reading it and finding it insightful for decision-making in medicine.
654 snips
Improve your decision-making, frameworks for learning, backcasting, and more | Annie Duke (#60 rebroadcast)
Mentioned by Shane Parrish as the author of "Thinking in Bets", a book about making smarter decisions.
Shane Parrish as the author of "Thinking in Bets", a book about making smarter decisions.
405 snips
#37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong
Recommended by 
Mark Manson as a book explaining thinking in probabilities, learned from his years playing poker.
Mark Manson as a book explaining thinking in probabilities, learned from his years playing poker.
236 snips
How to Get Lucky in Life and Take Smarter Risks
Mentioned by 
Howard Marks for her book "Thinking in Bets", highlighting its relevance to structuring investment decisions as bets.
Howard Marks for her book "Thinking in Bets", highlighting its relevance to structuring investment decisions as bets.
224 snips
Howard Marks: Oaktree Capital, Investment philosophy, Risk and Randomness
Mentioned by 
Adam Grant , referencing its advice on decision-making and the importance of not judging choices solely by outcomes.
Adam Grant , referencing its advice on decision-making and the importance of not judging choices solely by outcomes.
196 snips
Knowing when to quit with world poker champion Annie Duke
Mentioned by the podcast host as a national bestseller.
152 snips
Two things shape the course of your life: luck and your decisions (with Annie Duke)
Mentioned by Peter Attia as a book that everyone should read, highlighting its insights on decision-making.
Peter Attia as a book that everyone should read, highlighting its insights on decision-making.
139 snips
#60 - Annie Duke, decision strategist: Poker as a model system for life—how to improve decision making, use frameworks for learning, and apply ‘backcasting’ to boost your odds for future success
Recommended by 
Clay Finck as a guide to making better decisions under uncertainty, drawing from the author's experience as a professional poker player.
Clay Finck as a guide to making better decisions under uncertainty, drawing from the author's experience as a professional poker player.
129 snips
TIP715: Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke
