

#124
Mentioned in 143 episodes
Thinking in bets
Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
Book • 2018
In this book, Annie Duke teaches readers how to make better decisions by treating them as 'bets' on uncertain outcomes.
She emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between the quality of a decision and its outcome, acknowledging the role of luck, and avoiding biases such as 'resulting' and hindsight bias.
Duke draws on her experiences as a professional poker player and combines these with insights from cognitive psychology and other fields to provide tools for making more objective and thoughtful decisions.
The book encourages readers to get comfortable with uncertainty, seek truth through diverse opinions, and learn from outcomes to improve future decision-making.
She emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between the quality of a decision and its outcome, acknowledging the role of luck, and avoiding biases such as 'resulting' and hindsight bias.
Duke draws on her experiences as a professional poker player and combines these with insights from cognitive psychology and other fields to provide tools for making more objective and thoughtful decisions.
The book encourages readers to get comfortable with uncertainty, seek truth through diverse opinions, and learn from outcomes to improve future decision-making.
Mentioned by


















Mentioned in 143 episodes
Mentioned by 

in the context of decision-making and outcomes.


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Recommended by 

as a great book that casts things in probabilistic terms and is relevant to both poker and insurance.


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as one of her books focused on cognitive behavioral decision science and decision education.


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after reading it and finding it insightful for decision-making in medicine.


Peter Attia

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for its insights on first principles thinking.

Patrick Campbell

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10 lessons on bootstrapping a $200m business | Patrick Campbell (ProfitWell)
Mentioned by 

, it includes a section referencing a study about the accuracy of predictions.


Kyle Austin Young

510 snips
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Mentioned by 

as the author of "Thinking in Bets", a book about making smarter decisions.


Shane Parrish

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#37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong
Recommended by ![undefined]()

as a resource for understanding decision-making.

Maggie Crowley

420 snips
Mastering product strategy and growing as a PM | Maggie Crowley (Toast, Drift, Tripadvisor)



