#124

Mentioned in 137 episodes

Thinking in bets

Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

Book • 2018

Author

Annie Duke

In this book, Annie Duke teaches readers how to make better decisions by treating them as 'bets' on uncertain outcomes.

She emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between the quality of a decision and its outcome, acknowledging the role of luck, and avoiding biases such as 'resulting' and hindsight bias.

Duke draws on her experiences as a professional poker player and combines these with insights from cognitive psychology and other fields to provide tools for making more objective and thoughtful decisions.

The book encourages readers to get comfortable with uncertainty, seek truth through diverse opinions, and learn from outcomes to improve future decision-making.

Mentioned by

Mentioned in 137 episodes

Mentioned by

Seth Godin

in the context of decision-making and outcomes.

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Mentioned by

Stewart Butterfield

in the context of making rational decisions about pivoting, drawing a parallel to Annie Duke's concept of expected value.

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Mentioned by

Lenny Rachitsky

as one of

Annie Duke

's books.

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Recommended by

Tom Gayner

as a great book that casts things in probabilistic terms and is relevant to both poker and insurance.

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Mentioned by

Shane Parrish

as one of her books focused on cognitive behavioral decision science and decision education.

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Recommended by

Peter Attia

after reading it and finding it insightful for decision-making in medicine.

688 snips

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Recommended by

Patrick Campbell

for its insights on first principles thinking.

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Mentioned by

Kyle Austin Young

, it includes a section referencing a study about the accuracy of predictions.

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Mentioned by

Shane Parrish

as the author of "Thinking in Bets", a book about making smarter decisions.

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Recommended by

Maggie Crowley

as a resource for understanding decision-making.

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Mentioned by

Marc Andreessen

for her term "resulting" in the context of probabilistic domains.

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Mentioned by

Peter Attia

when discussing backcasting as a method for long-term planning.

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Mentioned by

Jordi Visser

as a book that highlights the importance of making better decisions, which AI can facilitate.

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Recommended by

Seth Godin

to understand the lizard brain concept.

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Recommended by

Mark Manson

as a book explaining thinking in probabilities, learned from his years playing poker.

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Mentioned by

Howard Marks

for her book "Thinking in Bets", highlighting its relevance to structuring investment decisions as bets.

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Mentioned by

Adam Grant

, referencing its advice on decision-making and the importance of not judging choices solely by outcomes.

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Mentioned by

Joe Buleg

in comparison to Shane Parrish's book on clear thinking.

191 snips

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Mentioned by

Jordi Visser

as a great preparation book for AI, especially for understanding probabilities and decision-making.

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Mentioned by

Kyle Grieve

as guides to mastering decision-making in both investing and life.

159 snips

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