#118

Mentioned in 99 episodes

Thinking in bets

Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

Book • 2018

Author

Annie Duke

In this book, Annie Duke teaches readers how to make better decisions by treating them as 'bets' on uncertain outcomes.

She emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between the quality of a decision and its outcome, acknowledging the role of luck, and avoiding biases such as 'resulting' and hindsight bias.

Duke draws on her experiences as a professional poker player and combines these with insights from cognitive psychology and other fields to provide tools for making more objective and thoughtful decisions.

The book encourages readers to get comfortable with uncertainty, seek truth through diverse opinions, and learn from outcomes to improve future decision-making.

Mentioned by

Mentioned in 99 episodes

Mentioned by

Seth Godin

in the context of decision-making and outcomes.

9,943 snips

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Recommended by

Tom Gayner

as a great book that casts things in probabilistic terms and is relevant to both poker and insurance.

833 snips

Tom Gayner: Invest Like The Best

Mentioned by

Lenny Rachitsky

as one of

Annie Duke

's books.

819 snips

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Mentioned by

Shane Parrish

as one of her books focused on cognitive behavioral decision science and decision education.

745 snips

#150 TKP Insights: Making (Even) Better Decisions

Recommended by

Patrick Campbell

for its insights on first principles thinking.

660 snips

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Recommended by

Peter Attia

after reading it and finding it insightful for decision-making in medicine.

654 snips

Improve your decision-making, frameworks for learning, backcasting, and more | Annie Duke (#60 rebroadcast)

Mentioned by

Shane Parrish

as the author of "Thinking in Bets", a book about making smarter decisions.

405 snips

#37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong

Recommended by

Maggie Crowley

as a resource for understanding decision-making.

404 snips

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Mentioned by

Marc Andreessen

for her term "resulting" in the context of probabilistic domains.

380 snips

#129 Marc Andreessen: Interview with an Icon

Mentioned by

Peter Attia

when discussing backcasting as a method for long-term planning.

272 snips

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Recommended by

Mark Manson

as a book explaining thinking in probabilities, learned from his years playing poker.

236 snips

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Recommended by

Seth Godin

to understand the lizard brain concept.

224 snips

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Mentioned by

Howard Marks

for her book "Thinking in Bets", highlighting its relevance to structuring investment decisions as bets.

224 snips

Howard Marks: Oaktree Capital, Investment philosophy, Risk and Randomness

Mentioned by

Adam Grant

, referencing its advice on decision-making and the importance of not judging choices solely by outcomes.

196 snips

Knowing when to quit with world poker champion Annie Duke

Mentioned by

Joe Buleg

in comparison to Shane Parrish's book on clear thinking.

169 snips

182: Clear Thinking by Shane Parrish

Mentioned by the podcast host as a national bestseller.

152 snips

Two things shape the course of your life: luck and your decisions (with Annie Duke)

Mentioned by

Kyle Grieve

as guides to mastering decision-making in both investing and life.

150 snips

TIP623: The Art Of Decision Making w/ Annie Duke

Mentioned by

Peter Attia

as a book that everyone should read, highlighting its insights on decision-making.

139 snips

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Recommended by

Clay Finck

as a guide to making better decisions under uncertainty, drawing from the author's experience as a professional poker player.

129 snips

TIP715: Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke

Mentioned by

Gabriel Weinberg

as a resource for understanding how to avoid confirmation bias and make better decisions.

129 snips

214: Gabriel Weinberg | How Mental Models Boost Super Thinking

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