In 'Failure: Why Science Is So Successful', Stuart Firestein argues that failure is not only inevitable but essential in scientific research. He presents historical and contemporary examples to illustrate how mistakes and errors have guided scientists toward new discoveries. The book challenges the idealized view of science as a flawless method, instead highlighting its messy and iterative nature.
In 'Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics,' Richard H. Thaler recounts his journey in challenging traditional economic theories that assume humans are rational actors. The book chronicles the evolution of behavioral economics, a field that integrates psychology and economics to understand how people actually make decisions. Thaler discusses various behavioral concepts such as endowment effects, mental accounting, and self-control issues, using anecdotes and empirical studies to illustrate these points. The book also delves into Thaler's personal struggles and successes in establishing behavioral economics as a recognized field, including his work with institutions like the British tax collection agency and his battles with traditional economic thinking[2][4][5].
In this book, Annie Duke teaches readers how to make better decisions by treating them as 'bets' on uncertain outcomes. She emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between the quality of a decision and its outcome, acknowledging the role of luck, and avoiding biases such as 'resulting' and hindsight bias. Duke draws on her experiences as a professional poker player and combines these with insights from cognitive psychology and other fields to provide tools for making more objective and thoughtful decisions. The book encourages readers to get comfortable with uncertainty, seek truth through diverse opinions, and learn from outcomes to improve future decision-making[1][3][5].
I have wanted to do this interview for a long time. On this episode, I am thrilled to have Annie Duke, former professional poker player and author of the new book, Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts.
Annie has a very interesting background that makes her uniquely qualified to speak about high-level decision making. As an author, speaker, world-class poker player, and academic in the fields of psychology and cognitive theory, Annie understands the intersection of luck, skill, and making decisions in uncertain, chaotic environments better than most people on the planet.
This is a whirlwind of an episode, and we cover all kinds of fascinating topics, including:
- The strange circumstances that shifted Annie’s path from finishing a Ph.D. in linguistics to becoming a professional poker player
- What it was like to be a female poker player in a predominantly male sport (especially before poker had become socially acceptable)
- What drew Annie into such a high stakes, time-pressured environment and why she felt like poker was the perfect fit for her
- How her graduate work in psychology informed the way she approached the game of poker — and helped her rack up wins
- How she finds the signal in a very noisy stream of feedback
- The big mistakes Annie noticed other players making that were stalling their progress in the game but allowed her to make giant leaps forward
- The role that mental models played in her learning process (and which models Annie liked to lean on the most in a high stakes game)
- The power of surrounding yourself with people that can help you expand your circle of competence — and how that made all the difference in Annie’s development as a player
- Confirmatory and exploratory thought, and how one helps us to be “accurate” and one helps us to be “right.”
- The secret pact you should be making with the people who are closest to you
And so much more.
This episode is just under two hours long, but there’s no fat in it. Annie delivers a masterclass in making the smartest decisions we can, even when our hubris insists otherwise. Do some finger stretches before hitting play, because you’re going to be taking some serious notes.
Please enjoy the interview!
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The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish 
