Annie Duke, a decision strategist and World Series of Poker champion, dives into the art of decision-making under uncertainty. She reveals how poker serves as a model for real-world decisions, blending luck and skill. Duke discusses our narrow focus in decision matrices and the consequences of risk aversion on innovation. She introduces backcasting as a powerful planning tool, linking future visions to present actions. With her unique insights, she challenges listeners to think probabilistically and embrace diverse learning opportunities for better outcomes.
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question_answer ANECDOTE
Sports Fandom
Annie Duke explains how her New England upbringing made her a Red Sox fan.
She contrasts this with her accidental Eagles fandom, highlighting the role of timing and personal experience in sports affiliations.
insights INSIGHT
Chess vs. Poker for Decision-Making
Chess, with perfect information, is a poor model for real-world decisions.
Poker, blending imperfect information and luck, offers a more realistic framework for navigating uncertainty.
insights INSIGHT
Luck and Incomplete Information
Decision-making involves incomplete information and the influence of luck.
Evaluating decisions requires considering both the frequency of outcomes and their controllability.
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In 'Gridiron Genius,' Michael Lombardi provides a detailed look at the inner workings of successful NFL teams. The book emphasizes the importance of strong leadership, meticulous attention to detail, and a sound organizational culture. Lombardi shares lessons learned from his time working with coaches like Bill Walsh, Al Davis, and Bill Belichick, and offers practical advice on coaching, personnel management, and strategy. The book is not only a valuable resource for football enthusiasts but also a guide for business leaders and anyone interested in organizational excellence.
Expert Political Judgment
How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
Philip E. Tetlock
In this book, Philip E. Tetlock evaluates the predictive abilities of experts by analyzing 27,451 verifiable predictions made by 284 world-renowned experts over more than 20 years. He finds that expert predictions are often no better than random guesses and identifies two types of thinkers: 'hedgehogs,' who are confident in their single, overarching idea, and 'foxes,' who are more eclectic and adaptable. Tetlock argues that foxes are generally more accurate in their predictions due to their ability to consider multiple perspectives and adapt to new information. The book also explores how the media often favors hedgehogs for their confident and decisive statements, despite their lower accuracy.
Thinking in bets
Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
Annie Duke
In this book, Annie Duke teaches readers how to make better decisions by treating them as 'bets' on uncertain outcomes. She emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between the quality of a decision and its outcome, acknowledging the role of luck, and avoiding biases such as 'resulting' and hindsight bias. Duke draws on her experiences as a professional poker player and combines these with insights from cognitive psychology and other fields to provide tools for making more objective and thoughtful decisions. The book encourages readers to get comfortable with uncertainty, seek truth through diverse opinions, and learn from outcomes to improve future decision-making[1][3][5].
Superforecasting
The Art and Science of Prediction
Dan Gardner
Philip E. Tetlock
Santiago Foz (argentino)
In this book, Tetlock and Gardner present the results of the Good Judgment Project, a massive forecasting tournament that identified a small group of 'superforecasters' who are exceptionally good at predicting future events. The authors explain that good forecasting does not require powerful computers or arcane methods but involves gathering evidence from various sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. The book uses stories of forecasting successes and failures, as well as interviews with high-level decision makers, to illustrate these principles and demonstrate how anyone can improve their forecasting abilities[3][4][5].
The success equation
Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing
Michael Mauboussin
In this book, Michael Mauboussin helps readers understand the interplay between skill and luck in achieving successes and failures. He provides a framework to analyze the relative importance of skill and luck, offering concrete suggestions for applying these insights to improve decision-making. The book covers various concepts such as the continuum of activities from pure luck to pure skill, the importance of sample size, and the use of tools like checklists to enhance performance. Mauboussin draws on examples from sports, business, and investing to illustrate his points, making the book a valuable resource for anyone seeking to make better decisions in both professional and personal life.
In this episode, former World Series of Poker champion and author Annie Duke explains how poker is a pertinent model system for decision-making in the real world, a system which blends imperfect information with some unknown percentage of both luck and skill. Annie breaks down the decision-making matrix, revealing how we often focus too narrowly on just one of the four quadrants, missing out on valuable learning opportunities in the remaining 75% of situations. She delves into how our tendency to evaluate only negative outcomes leads to a culture of risk aversion. This mindset, she argues, stifles the kind of bold decision-making necessary for progress and innovation across various fields, from poker and sports to business and medicine. Annie also introduces a robust framework for learning and the levels of thought required to excel in any domain. Finally, she discusses a strategy called “backcasting”, a concept that resonated deeply with Peter in terms of how he thinks about extending healthspan.
We discuss:
Annie’s background, favorite sports teams, and Peter’s affinity for Bill Belichick [1:30];
Chess vs. poker: Which is a better metaphor for decision-making in life (and medicine)? [6:45];
Thinking probabilistically: Why we aren’t wired that way, and how you can improve it for better decision-making [12:30];
Variable reinforcement: The psychological draw of poker that keeps people playing [19:15];
The role of luck and skill in poker (and other sports), and the difference between looking at the short run vs. long run [32:15];
A brief explanation of Texas hold ‘em [41:00];
The added complexity of reading the behavior of others players in poker [47:30];
Why Annie likes to “quit fast,” and why poker is still popular despite the power of loss aversion [52:45];
Limit vs. no-limit poker, and how the game has changed with growing popularity [55:15];
The advent of analytics to poker, and why Annie would get crushed against today’s professionals [1:04:45];
The decision matrix, and the “resulting” heuristic: The simplifier we use to judge the quality of decisions —The Pete Carroll Superbowl play call example [1:10:30];
The personal and societal consequences of avoiding bad outcomes [1:21:45];
Poker as a model system for life [1:31:30];
How many leaders are making (and encouraging) status-quo decisions, and how Bill Belichick’s decision-making changed after winning two Super Bowls [1:35:15];
What did we learn about decision-making from the Y2K nothingburger? And how about the D-Day invasion? [1:39:30];
The first step to becoming a good decision maker [1:43:00];
The difference between elite poker players and the ones who make much slower progress [1:49:45];
Framework for learning a skill, the four levels of thought, and why we hate digging into our victories to see what happened [1:52:15];
The capacity for self-deception, and when it is MOST important to apply four-level thinking [2:00:30];
Soft landings: The challenge of high-level thinking where there is subtle feedback and wider skill gaps [2:11:00];
The benefits of “backcasting” (and doing pre-mortems) [2:13:30];
Parting advice from Annie for those feeling overwhelmed (and two book recommendations) [2:21:30]; and
The Peter Attia Drive 
