#1566
Mentioned in 13 episodes
Expert Political Judgment
How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
Book • 2004
In this book, Philip E. Tetlock evaluates the predictive abilities of experts by analyzing 27,451 verifiable predictions made by 284 world-renowned experts over more than 20 years.
He finds that expert predictions are often no better than random guesses and identifies two types of thinkers: 'hedgehogs,' who are confident in their single, overarching idea, and 'foxes,' who are more eclectic and adaptable.
Tetlock argues that foxes are generally more accurate in their predictions due to their ability to consider multiple perspectives and adapt to new information.
The book also explores how the media often favors hedgehogs for their confident and decisive statements, despite their lower accuracy.
He finds that expert predictions are often no better than random guesses and identifies two types of thinkers: 'hedgehogs,' who are confident in their single, overarching idea, and 'foxes,' who are more eclectic and adaptable.
Tetlock argues that foxes are generally more accurate in their predictions due to their ability to consider multiple perspectives and adapt to new information.
The book also explores how the media often favors hedgehogs for their confident and decisive statements, despite their lower accuracy.
Mentioned by
Mentioned in 13 episodes
Mentioned by Michael Mauboussin in the context of expert prediction accuracy.
769 snips
#659: Michael Mauboussin — How Great Investors Make Decisions, Harnessing The Wisdom (vs. Madness) of Crowds, Lessons from Race Horses, and More
Mentioned by 
Annie Duke as a book highly recommended for those interested in probabilistic thinking.
Annie Duke as a book highly recommended for those interested in probabilistic thinking.
139 snips
#60 - Annie Duke, decision strategist: Poker as a model system for life—how to improve decision making, use frameworks for learning, and apply ‘backcasting’ to boost your odds for future success
Mentioned by 
Marc Andreessen as a book highlighting the inaccuracy of expert predictions and lack of consequences for being wrong.
Marc Andreessen as a book highlighting the inaccuracy of expert predictions and lack of consequences for being wrong.
118 snips
Marc Andreessen on Building Netscape & the Birth of the Browser
Mentioned by Jason Matheny as a key piece of research on the accuracy of human judgment about policymaking.
53 snips
How to Predict the Future
Mentioned by Jeremy Nixon in relation to super forecasting and the differences between fox-like and hedgehog-like thinking.
25 snips
Knowledge Management and Deugenesis (with Jeremy Nixon)
Mentioned by Michael Mauboussin, recommending readers check out Tetlock's work on expert forecasting.
Expectations Investing with Michael Mauboussin
Mentioned by 
David Epstein as the single most important book to him, concerning the development of good judgment.
David Epstein as the single most important book to him, concerning the development of good judgment.
David Epstein on Why Generalists Thrive in a Specialized World
