#1925
Mentioned in 13 episodes

Expert Political Judgment

How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
Book • 2004
In this book, Philip E. Tetlock evaluates the predictive abilities of experts by analyzing 27,451 verifiable predictions made by 284 world-renowned experts over more than 20 years.

He finds that expert predictions are often no better than random guesses and identifies two types of thinkers: 'hedgehogs,' who are confident in their single, overarching idea, and 'foxes,' who are more eclectic and adaptable.

Tetlock argues that foxes are generally more accurate in their predictions due to their ability to consider multiple perspectives and adapt to new information.

The book also explores how the media often favors hedgehogs for their confident and decisive statements, despite their lower accuracy.

Mentioned by

Mentioned in 13 episodes

Mentioned by
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Marc Andreessen
as a book highlighting the inaccuracy of expert predictions and lack of consequences for being wrong.
118 snips
Marc Andreessen on Building Netscape & the Birth of the Browser
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Jason Matheny
as a key piece of research on the accuracy of human judgment about policymaking.
53 snips
How to Predict the Future
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Ken Shigematsu
to illustrate the inaccuracy of expert predictions.
37 snips
Hope (ft. Ken Shigematsu) | Advent E1
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Marc Andreessen
when discussing the unreliability of expert predictions.
36 snips
From The a16z Podcast: “Marc Andreessen on Building Netscape & the Birth of the Browser”
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Barry Ritholtz
to illustrate the limitations of expert predictions in various fields.
35 snips
Barry Ritholtz: ‘How Not to Invest’
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Jeremy Nixon
in relation to super forecasting and the differences between fox-like and hedgehog-like thinking.
25 snips
Knowledge Management and Deugenesis (with Jeremy Nixon)
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Ryan Connor
, highlighting the author's analysis of pundits' consistent inaccuracies.
Polymarket’s Cultural Relevance, PumpFun’s ICO, and Prosumer Apps | Analyst Round Table
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Tim Harford
when discussing the work of Philip Tetlock on expert political judgment.
Buried by the Wall Street Crash
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Maria Konnikova
, highlighting his work on the difficulty of making predictions.
The Degenerate Gambler’s Guide to the Election
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Sam Roggeveen
in the context of discussing the accuracy of political predictions.
“Chinese War Games” with Sam Roggeveen
Mentioned by Michael Mauboussin, recommending readers check out Tetlock's work on expert forecasting.
Expectations Investing with Michael Mauboussin
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Spencer Greenberg
in relation to expert political judgment and forecasting accuracy.
How broken is social science? (with Matt Grossman)
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David Epstein
as the single most important book to him, concerning the development of good judgment.
David Epstein on Why Generalists Thrive in a Specialized World
Mentioned by
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Adam Grant
as a book about expert political judgment.
Adam Grant and Tim Harford – The Power of Knowing What You Don’t Know

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