

#1925
Mentioned in 13 episodes
Expert Political Judgment
How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
Book • 2004
In this book, Philip E. Tetlock evaluates the predictive abilities of experts by analyzing 27,451 verifiable predictions made by 284 world-renowned experts over more than 20 years.
He finds that expert predictions are often no better than random guesses and identifies two types of thinkers: 'hedgehogs,' who are confident in their single, overarching idea, and 'foxes,' who are more eclectic and adaptable.
Tetlock argues that foxes are generally more accurate in their predictions due to their ability to consider multiple perspectives and adapt to new information.
The book also explores how the media often favors hedgehogs for their confident and decisive statements, despite their lower accuracy.
He finds that expert predictions are often no better than random guesses and identifies two types of thinkers: 'hedgehogs,' who are confident in their single, overarching idea, and 'foxes,' who are more eclectic and adaptable.
Tetlock argues that foxes are generally more accurate in their predictions due to their ability to consider multiple perspectives and adapt to new information.
The book also explores how the media often favors hedgehogs for their confident and decisive statements, despite their lower accuracy.
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Mentioned in 13 episodes
Mentioned by Michael Mauboussin in the context of expert prediction accuracy.

769 snips
#659: Michael Mauboussin — How Great Investors Make Decisions, Harnessing The Wisdom (vs. Madness) of Crowds, Lessons from Race Horses, and More
Mentioned by 

as a book that explores probabilistic thinking.


Annie Duke

654 snips
Improve your decision-making, frameworks for learning, backcasting, and more | Annie Duke (#60 rebroadcast)
Mentioned by 

as a book highly recommended for those interested in probabilistic thinking.


Annie Duke

139 snips
#60 - Annie Duke, decision strategist: Poker as a model system for life—how to improve decision making, use frameworks for learning, and apply ‘backcasting’ to boost your odds for future success
Mentioned by 

as a book highlighting the inaccuracy of expert predictions and lack of consequences for being wrong.


Marc Andreessen

118 snips
Marc Andreessen on Building Netscape & the Birth of the Browser
Mentioned by ![undefined]()

as a key piece of research on the accuracy of human judgment about policymaking.

Jason Matheny

53 snips
How to Predict the Future
Mentioned by ![undefined]()

to illustrate the inaccuracy of expert predictions.

Ken Shigematsu

37 snips
Hope (ft. Ken Shigematsu) | Advent E1
Mentioned by 

when discussing the unreliability of expert predictions.


Marc Andreessen

36 snips
From The a16z Podcast: “Marc Andreessen on Building Netscape & the Birth of the Browser”
Mentioned by 

to illustrate the limitations of expert predictions in various fields.


Barry Ritholtz

35 snips
Barry Ritholtz: ‘How Not to Invest’
Mentioned by ![undefined]()

in relation to super forecasting and the differences between fox-like and hedgehog-like thinking.

Jeremy Nixon

25 snips
Knowledge Management and Deugenesis (with Jeremy Nixon)
Recommended by ![undefined]()

for its insights into forecasting and expertise.

William Bernstein

14 snips
William Bernstein - “The More Comfortable You Are Buying Something, in General, the Worse the Investment It's Going to Be"
Mentioned by ![undefined]()

, highlighting the author's analysis of pundits' consistent inaccuracies.

Ryan Connor

Polymarket’s Cultural Relevance, PumpFun’s ICO, and Prosumer Apps | Analyst Round Table
Mentioned by 

when discussing the work of Philip Tetlock on expert political judgment.


Tim Harford

Buried by the Wall Street Crash
Mentioned by 

, highlighting his work on the difficulty of making predictions.


Maria Konnikova

The Degenerate Gambler’s Guide to the Election
Mentioned by ![undefined]()

in the context of discussing the accuracy of political predictions.

Sam Roggeveen

“Chinese War Games” with Sam Roggeveen
Mentioned by Michael Mauboussin, recommending readers check out Tetlock's work on expert forecasting.

Expectations Investing with Michael Mauboussin
Mentioned by 

in relation to expert political judgment and forecasting accuracy.


Spencer Greenberg

How broken is social science? (with Matt Grossman)
Mentioned by 

as one of the results of his research.


Rob Wiblin

#60 - Phil Tetlock on why accurate forecasting matters for everything, and how you can do it better
Mentioned by 

as the single most important book to him, concerning the development of good judgment.


David Epstein

David Epstein on Why Generalists Thrive in a Specialized World
Mentioned by 

as a book about expert political judgment.


Adam Grant

Adam Grant and Tim Harford – The Power of Knowing What You Don’t Know