#60 - Annie Duke, decision strategist: Poker as a model system for life—how to improve decision making, use frameworks for learning, and apply ‘backcasting’ to boost your odds for future success
Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion and author of "Thinking in Bets," dives into the art of decision-making. She discusses how poker serves as a unique model for evaluating choices in uncertain situations, blending luck and skill. Duke emphasizes the importance of embracing all decision-making scenarios, rather than only focusing on negative outcomes. Introducing concepts like 'backcasting,' she offers strategies for setting long-term goals while recognizing the role of cognitive biases. Tune in for insights that apply across various fields from business to sports!
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Howard's Poker Journey
Annie Duke's brother, Howard, honed his poker skills in NYC's underground scene.
Starting as an errand boy, he eventually excelled at poker and played with renowned pros.
insights INSIGHT
Poker vs Chess as Decision-Making Models
Chess, with perfect information, is a poor decision-making model compared to poker.
Poker, blending imperfect information and luck, better reflects real-world decisions like in medicine.
insights INSIGHT
Humans and Probability
Humans aren't naturally wired for probabilistic thinking, despite its importance in a probabilistic world.
Peter Attia's probabilistic worldview developed over time, highlighting the need for deliberate training.
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Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing
Michael Mauboussin
In this book, Michael Mauboussin helps readers understand the interplay between skill and luck in achieving successes and failures. He provides a framework to analyze the relative importance of skill and luck, offering concrete suggestions for applying these insights to improve decision-making. The book covers various concepts such as the continuum of activities from pure luck to pure skill, the importance of sample size, and the use of tools like checklists to enhance performance. Mauboussin draws on examples from sports, business, and investing to illustrate his points, making the book a valuable resource for anyone seeking to make better decisions in both professional and personal life.
Expert Political Judgment
How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
Philip E. Tetlock
In this book, Philip E. Tetlock evaluates the predictive abilities of experts by analyzing 27,451 verifiable predictions made by 284 world-renowned experts over more than 20 years. He finds that expert predictions are often no better than random guesses and identifies two types of thinkers: 'hedgehogs,' who are confident in their single, overarching idea, and 'foxes,' who are more eclectic and adaptable. Tetlock argues that foxes are generally more accurate in their predictions due to their ability to consider multiple perspectives and adapt to new information. The book also explores how the media often favors hedgehogs for their confident and decisive statements, despite their lower accuracy.
Gridiron genius
Michael Lombardi
In 'Gridiron Genius,' Michael Lombardi provides a detailed look at the inner workings of successful NFL teams. The book emphasizes the importance of strong leadership, meticulous attention to detail, and a sound organizational culture. Lombardi shares lessons learned from his time working with coaches like Bill Walsh, Al Davis, and Bill Belichick, and offers practical advice on coaching, personnel management, and strategy. The book is not only a valuable resource for football enthusiasts but also a guide for business leaders and anyone interested in organizational excellence.
Thinking in bets
Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
Annie Duke
In this book, Annie Duke teaches readers how to make better decisions by treating them as 'bets' on uncertain outcomes. She emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between the quality of a decision and its outcome, acknowledging the role of luck, and avoiding biases such as 'resulting' and hindsight bias. Duke draws on her experiences as a professional poker player and combines these with insights from cognitive psychology and other fields to provide tools for making more objective and thoughtful decisions. The book encourages readers to get comfortable with uncertainty, seek truth through diverse opinions, and learn from outcomes to improve future decision-making[1][3][5].
Superforecasting
The Art and Science of Prediction
Dan Gardner
Philip E. Tetlock
Santiago Foz (argentino)
In this book, Tetlock and Gardner present the results of the Good Judgment Project, a massive forecasting tournament that identified a small group of 'superforecasters' who are exceptionally good at predicting future events. The authors explain that good forecasting does not require powerful computers or arcane methods but involves gathering evidence from various sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. The book uses stories of forecasting successes and failures, as well as interviews with high-level decision makers, to illustrate these principles and demonstrate how anyone can improve their forecasting abilities[3][4][5].
In this episode, former World Series of Poker champion and author, Annie Duke, explains how poker is a pertinent model system for decision making in the real world, a system which blends imperfect information with some unknown percentage of both luck and skill. We go through the decision-making matrix, and how we spend most of our energy focusing on just one of the four quadrants at the expense of the learning opportunities that come from the other 75% of situations. Annie also shares how this evaluation of only the bad outcomes (and our tendency to judge others more harshly than ourselves in the face of a non-status quo decision), leads individuals, leaders, and teams to avoid bad outcomes at all costs. This avoidance is at the cost of the types of decisions which lead to progress and innovation both personally, and societally, across many realms from poker to sports to business to medicine. We also dive deep into a framework for learning, and the levels of thought required to rise to the top of a given domain. Finally, we talk about something that resonated deeply with me in terms of how I think about extending healthspan, which is the concept of “backcasting”.
We discuss:
Annie’s background, favorite sports teams, and Peter’s affinity for Belichick [7:30];
Chess vs. poker: Which is a better metaphor for decision making in life (and medicine)? [12:30];
Thinking probabilistically: Why we aren’t wired that way, and how you can improve it for better decision making [18:15];
Variable reinforcement: The psychological draw of poker that keeps people playing [25:15];
The role of luck and skill in poker (and other sports), and the difference between looking at the short run vs. long run [38:00];
A brief explanation of Texas hold ‘em [47:00];
The added complexity of reading the behavior of others players in poker [53:15];
Why Annie likes to “quit fast”, and why poker is still popular despite the power of loss aversion [58:30];
Limit vs. no limit poker, and how the game has changed with growing popularity [1:01:00];
The advent of analytics to poker, and why Annie would get crushed against today’s professionals [1:10:30];
The decision matrix, and the ‘resulting’ heuristic: The simplifier we use to judge the quality of decisions —The Pete Carroll Superbowl play call example [1:16:30];
The personal and societal consequences of avoiding bad outcomes [1:27:00];
Poker as a model system for life [1:37:15];
How many leaders are making (and encouraging) status-quo decisions, and how Bill Belichick’s decision making changed after winning two Super Bowls [1:41:00];
What did we learn about decision making from the Y2K nothingburger? And how about the D-Day invasion? [1:46:30];
The first step to becoming a good decision maker [1:48:45];
The difference between elite poker players and the ones who make much slower progress [1:55:30];
Framework for learning a skill, the four levels of thought, and why we hate digging into our victories to see what happened [1:58:15];
The capacity for self-deception, and when it is MOST important to apply four-level thinking [2:06:15];
Soft landings: The challenge of high-level thinking where there is subtle feedback and wider skill gaps [2:16:45];
The benefits of ‘backcasting’ (and doing pre-mortems) [2:19:30];
Parting advice from Annie for those feeling overwhelmed (and two book recommendations) [2:28:30]; and
The Peter Attia Drive 
