Philip E. Tetlock

Philip Tetlock, an academic and author known for leading the Good Judgment Project, dives into the art of forecasting. He reveals how amateur 'superforecasters' outperformed seasoned intelligence officers by applying rigorous scoring techniques. Tetlock discusses balancing cognitive errors and teamwork to achieve better predictions. He also critiques the certainty often seen in intelligence assessments and emphasizes the need for probabilistic thinking. Lastly, he proposes using forecasting methods to enhance public debates and tackle complex policy issues.

Philip Tetlock, a political and social scientist, discusses the influence of scenarios on judgments of probability, forecasting errors and the importance of self-reflection, self-improvement in super forecasting, creating forecasting communities and the impact of public engagement, as well as challenges and strategies in creating a prize for climate change.