Buried by the Wall Street Crash

In this book, Philip E. Tetlock evaluates the predictive abilities of experts by analyzing 27,451 verifiable predictions made by 284 world-renowned experts over more than 20 years. He finds that expert predictions are often no better than random guesses and identifies two types of thinkers: 'hedgehogs,' who are confident in their single, overarching idea, and 'foxes,' who are more eclectic and adaptable. Tetlock argues that foxes are generally more accurate in their predictions due to their ability to consider multiple perspectives and adapt to new information. The book also explores how the media often favors hedgehogs for their confident and decisive statements, despite their lower accuracy.

In 'How to Live', Derek Sivers presents a collection of 27 independent chapters, each offering a different philosophy on how to live. These chapters often contradict each other, arguing for various approaches such as being completely independent, committing to one career or person, being fully present, or delaying gratification. The book is designed for reflection as much as instruction, providing actionable directives without quoting philosophers or naming specific ideologies. It invites readers to consider multiple perspectives and find their own way, emphasizing that there is no one right way to live life.