Statecraft How to Predict the Future
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Jun 25, 2025 Jason Matheny, former director of IARPA and head of the RAND Corporation, explores the future of forecasting and its impact on policymaking. He discusses how even minor improvements in predictive accuracy can save billions. Matheny delves into the unique innovations at IARPA, the advantages democracies have over autocracies, and critiques of digital design. He highlights the significance of integrating human judgment with machine learning and emphasizes trust and collaboration in national security, all while stressing the need for better decision-making tools in government.
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Value of Improving Forecast Accuracy
- A 1% improvement in forecasting accuracy can save tens of billions of dollars.
- Small gains in prediction accuracy have huge economic and strategic value.
Key Features of ARPA Model
- The ARPA model uses entrepreneurial program managers with autonomy to pursue high-risk, high-reward research.
- Defunding failing projects and research tournaments are key to its distinct approach.
Qualities of Good Program Managers
- Hire program managers with technical knowledge, creativity, and risk tolerance.
- Ensure they can pitch and execute transformative, feasible projects.
