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How to Predict the Future

Statecraft

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Innovating Under ARPA's Model

This chapter explores the ARPA model's distinct characteristics that foster innovation through entrepreneurial program managers equipped with autonomy to address high-risk research challenges. It discusses the rigorous selection process for program managers, the critical evaluation of research proposals using the Heilmeier questions, and the importance of assessing risk versus potential reward in project funding. Additionally, the chapter highlights the implications of security clearances and critiques existing frameworks while suggesting strategic assessments to enhance the evaluation of innovative projects.

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