Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg cover image

Two things shape the course of your life: luck and your decisions (with Annie Duke)

Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg

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Beyond Pros and Cons: A Deeper Look at Decisions

This chapter critiques the effectiveness of pros and cons lists in decision-making, revealing their tendency to amplify biases rather than clarify choices. By exploring concepts like expected value, risk management, and types of uncertainty, the discussion emphasizes the complexity of decision-making processes. Using relatable examples such as climbing Mount Everest and the Kelly criterion in gambling, the chapter advocates for a more nuanced approach to evaluating potential gains and losses.

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