757: Annie Duke | The Power of Knowing When to Quit

125 snips

Nov 29, 2022

Annie Duke, a World Series of Poker champion and author of 'Thinking in Bets' and 'Quit,' discusses the art of decision-making and the often-misunderstood power of quitting. She challenges the notion of 'never give up,' stressing that sometimes it's wiser to walk away from losing pursuits. Duke explains the sunk cost fallacy and the importance of setting 'kill criteria' to make rational choices. With insights from her poker experience, she highlights how knowing when to quit can lead to personal growth and a more fulfilling life.

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ANECDOTE

Never Give Up

"Never give up" is bad advice; even in situations like sports injuries, quitting can be necessary.
Muhammad Ali's boxing career illustrates how grit can become detrimental if applied to a harmful activity.

ADVICE

Grit Requires Worthwhile Pursuits

Evaluate if your pursuits are worthwhile.
Quit when they're no longer beneficial, like in Muhammad Ali's case.

INSIGHT

Quitting Speeds Up Progress

Quitting can be a virtue, speeding up progress by freeing you from dead ends.
It allows you to pursue more fulfilling and valuable activities.

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Grit

The Power of Passion and Perseverance

Angela Duckworth

In this book, Angela Duckworth presents a compelling argument that success is driven more by grit, a fusion of relentless passion and perseverance, than by talent. She explains what grit is, how to identify and develop it, and how it can be grown through stages such as developing interests, consistent practice, finding a pro-social purpose, and cultivating optimism. The book is structured in three parts: explaining what grit is and why it matters, how to grow grit from the inside out, and how to grow grit from the outside in, targeting parents, coaches, teachers, and organizational leaders. Duckworth supports her arguments with personal stories, historical insights, and interviews with high achievers from various fields.

Superforecasting

The Art and Science of Prediction

Dan Gardner

Philip E. Tetlock

Santiago Foz (argentino)

In this book, Tetlock and Gardner present the results of the Good Judgment Project, a massive forecasting tournament that identified a small group of 'superforecasters' who are exceptionally good at predicting future events. The authors explain that good forecasting does not require powerful computers or arcane methods but involves gathering evidence from various sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. The book uses stories of forecasting successes and failures, as well as interviews with high-level decision makers, to illustrate these principles and demonstrate how anyone can improve their forecasting abilities[3][4][5].

Thinking in bets

Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

Annie Duke

In this book, Annie Duke teaches readers how to make better decisions by treating them as 'bets' on uncertain outcomes. She emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between the quality of a decision and its outcome, acknowledging the role of luck, and avoiding biases such as 'resulting' and hindsight bias. Duke draws on her experiences as a professional poker player and combines these with insights from cognitive psychology and other fields to provide tools for making more objective and thoughtful decisions. The book encourages readers to get comfortable with uncertainty, seek truth through diverse opinions, and learn from outcomes to improve future decision-making[1][3][5].

Quit

The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away

Annie Duke