In this book, Annie Duke teaches readers how to make better decisions by treating them as 'bets' on uncertain outcomes. She emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between the quality of a decision and its outcome, acknowledging the role of luck, and avoiding biases such as 'resulting' and hindsight bias. Duke draws on her experiences as a professional poker player and combines these with insights from cognitive psychology and other fields to provide tools for making more objective and thoughtful decisions. The book encourages readers to get comfortable with uncertainty, seek truth through diverse opinions, and learn from outcomes to improve future decision-making[1][3][5].
In this book, Tetlock and Gardner present the results of the Good Judgment Project, a massive forecasting tournament that identified a small group of 'superforecasters' who are exceptionally good at predicting future events. The authors explain that good forecasting does not require powerful computers or arcane methods but involves gathering evidence from various sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. The book uses stories of forecasting successes and failures, as well as interviews with high-level decision makers, to illustrate these principles and demonstrate how anyone can improve their forecasting abilities[3][4][5].
In this book, Tony Robbins and Christopher Zook interview over a dozen of the world’s most successful alternative investment managers, collectively managing over half a trillion dollars. The book covers various investment strategies, including private equity, private credit, private real estate, and venture capital. It also discusses how to invest in the energy evolution, own pieces of major professional sports teams, and use private real estate as an inflationary hedge. The authors emphasize the importance of a problem-centric mindset and address psychological barriers to successful investing.
Kyle Grieve chats with Annie Duke about her own story of quitting and how it helped sparked the idea for one of her books, the importance of base rates in helping us make better decisions, how to improve our investing processes when we have long feedback loops, the importance of using kill criteria to quit an investment or hypothesis, how to use a quitting coach to help you quit things we hold onto for too long, the importance of dissociating ourselves from our most cherished ideas, and a whole lot more!
IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:
00:00 - Intro
02:28 - Annie's own story of quitting and how it got here to where she is today.
15:50 - Why expected value is so crucial for investors to manage risk best.
20:15 - The importance of understanding base rates.
20:15 - How we can use base rates to help us best understand expected values of our investments.
24:55 - How we can reframe our analysis of a business to close feedback loops on long-term investments.
32:40 - How we can get transfer from one skill to another far away skill (e.g. chess to investing).
45:28 - How we can use kill criteria in our investing decision-making to improve our abilities to quit a losing investment.
45:28 - How to engineer your decision-making to give yourself an outside view.
51:11 - How we can disassociate ourselves from our investments to reduce the impacts of the endowment effects.
51:32 - How to set up a quitting coach by permitting them to disagree with you.
And so much more!
Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.
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