EdgeCast

Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class II Part I [8.24.15]

Aug 24, 2015
Ask episode
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
1
Introduction
00:00 • 3min
2
How to Get the Right People on the Bus
03:03 • 3min
3
The Importance of Granularity in Forecasting
05:43 • 4min
4
Probabilistic Reasoning Training Improves Probability Judgment
09:46 • 2min
5
The Wisdom of the Crowd Algorithm
11:47 • 3min
6
The Myth and Reality of Zero-Dot 30
14:59 • 4min
7
The Good Judgment Project Outperformed Prediction Markets
18:45 • 2min
8
The Case for Operationalizing Prediction Markets Poorly
20:20 • 2min
9
How to Beat the Market
22:19 • 2min
10
The Philosophy of the Good Judgment Project
24:27 • 3min
11
The Good Judgment Project
27:21 • 2min
12
The Evolution of Cooperation
29:37 • 2min
13
How to Deal With Mistakes in Forecasting
31:24 • 2min
14
The Limits of Probability
33:16 • 3min
15
The Importance of Balanced Ideological Bios
35:48 • 2min
16
The Relationship Between Time Spent and Forecasting Ability
37:30 • 2min
17
The Relationship Between Confidence and Predictability
39:14 • 2min
18
The Difference Between Super Forecasting and Others
41:30 • 2min
19
The Scientific Value of Tournaments
43:44 • 3min
20
The Challenge of Forecasting Tournaments
46:48 • 3min