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Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class II Part I [8.24.15]

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How to Beat the Market

I want to protect the complaints by economists because I suppose the simplest question in the context is, well then why not actually try to beat the market? That's an excellent idea. It was not something that was the central target of this, of the IARPA project. When there were those tournaments actually they're kind of markets too. You're tournaments from markets too in a way. Reputational currency, well, but that's an absolute example. We give you economy is different. We have money economy. Well, we're consistent,. It's like different terms. If you give an example, we can make sure that's not the same. So if it's a reputation thing

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