Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class II Part I [8.24.15]
EdgeCast
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The Wisdom of the Crowd Algorithm
There are categories of questions where people who are particularly opinionated or likely to be blindsided. Extremeizing brings mass forecasts almost up to parity, in many cases, with superforecaster forecasts. You can make the masses almost as good as the superforecasters with a version of this algorithm. It is pretty powerful for superforecasters.
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