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Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class II Part I [8.24.15]

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The Scientific Value of Tournaments

Tournaments have a scientific value. They help us test a lot of psychological hypotheses about the drivers of accuracy. There are a lot of ideas we can test in tournaments. Tournaments have a value inside organizations and businesses, because more accurate probabilities help you to price options better on Wall Street or do whatever. But I wanted to focus more on what I see as the wider societal value of tournaments. The potential value of tournaments in depolarizing, unnecessarily polarizing policy debates,. And how might tournaments do that?

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