Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class II Part I [8.24.15]
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How to Get the Right People on the Bus
There is a somewhat element of self-fulfillment here. Seeing forecasting scale as a skill that can be cultivated and is worth cultivating, that's another one of the key ingredients. You need to believe that this is possible. If you don't believe it's possible, you're not going to try it. To think of Hillary's electoral prospects, well, from 60 to 58 to 57 to 63, as things advance unfold, you update.
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