Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class II Part I [8.24.15]
EdgeCast
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Probabilistic Reasoning Training Improves Probability Judgment
The group thing is not much of a threat in this type of forecasting tournament environment, because people aren't face to face. These are virtual teams. They don't have a leader. If anything, the problem is getting enough coordination, not excessive coordination and conformity pressure. The super forecast for teams are particularly good at doing this constructive confrontation process.
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