Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class II Part I [8.24.15]
EdgeCast
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The Challenge of Forecasting Tournaments
The key is to generate questions that are simultaneously more rigorous and relevant. What you're looking for is creating clusters of resolvable indicators, each of which makes a significant incremental contribution to the resolution of a bigger question. You want to look at whether or not there's a Sino-Japanese class around contested islands in the East China Sea. There's no room for much debate about it. That's what it means to pass the clairvoyance test.
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