The Good Judgment Project Outperformed Prediction Markets

David Ignatius wrote an article in the Washington Post a couple of years ago on this tournament and he claimed from classified sources that the Good Judgment Project outperformed a prediction market inside the intelligence community. Professional analysts with classified information outperformed it by 25 or 30%. Which was about the margin by which the super forecasters are outperforming our own prediction market in the external world. Many economists would say there's got to be something wrong because prediction markets are the most efficient possible way of aggregating information.