Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class II Part I [8.24.15]
EdgeCast
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The Case for Operationalizing Prediction Markets Poorly
The government put a lot of constraints on how much we could pay people. We paid everybody the same thing, whether they're super forecasters or bumps in the log. An illustration here of how good they got is 40. This is our receiver operating characteristic curve. The blue function rising up here shows how much better super forecasters were at achieving hits at an acceptable cost and false alarms.
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