Novara Media

Downstream: How To Predict the Future w/ Peter Turchin

Jun 19, 2023
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Episode notes
1
Introduction
00:00 • 2min
2
The Science of History: Glimodynamics
01:47 • 2min
3
The Unknowability of Complex Systems
03:26 • 3min
4
The Rise and Fall of the Elite War Production
06:07 • 2min
5
The Evolution of Elite War Production in the United States
07:59 • 3min
6
The Origins of Civil War in the United States
11:15 • 2min
7
The Overproduction of Elites in the United States
13:14 • 4min
8
The Evolution of the Elite in the US
17:38 • 4min
9
The Overproduction of Elite Graduates in the US
21:40 • 5min
10
The Failure of Progressives in the United States
26:29 • 2min
11
The Science of History and the Russian Revolution
28:48 • 4min
12
The Importance of Turning Off the Wealth Pump
32:44 • 4min
13
The Pros and Cons of Social Democracy
36:25 • 2min
14
The Importance of Youth Bouch in Western Societies
37:58 • 3min
15
The Structure of the Crisis
40:53 • 2min
16
The Arab Spring and the Youth Bulge
42:43 • 3min
17
The United States Is a Plutocracy
45:20 • 2min
18
The Center Is Elite Preferences
47:03 • 2min
19
The Battle Within Ukraine
49:08 • 4min
20
The Implications of Demilitarization for Western Democracy
52:57 • 2min
21
The Importance of Nonviolent Political Economy
54:31 • 3min
22
The Implications of Donald Trump in the 2016 Presidential Election
57:32 • 2min
23
The Importance of Race in American Politics
59:09 • 3min
24
The Future of Political Instability
01:02:31 • 3min
25
The Disintegrative Period in the US
01:05:19 • 2min
26
The Dehumanization of Political Opponents
01:07:32 • 2min
27
The Dysphoric Experiences of the Working Class
01:09:47 • 2min
28
The Rise and Fall of the Working Class
01:12:05 • 2min
29
The Liberal Political Elites Are Still Resistant to That
01:14:34 • 5min
30
The Storming of the Cap
01:19:05 • 2min
31
The Origins of the Science of Biology
01:20:55 • 2min
32
The Probability of a Civil War
01:22:49 • 3min
33
The Importance of Resolution in War
01:25:39 • 3min