The Probability of a Civil War

The South had fewer men of fighting age compared to the North. But on the other hand, those southern gentlemen were riding horses and shooting rifles. So you would say that, let's say they're twice as effective. This is not such a huge differential. And here's where a mathematical model of battle dynamics comes and helps. I won't explain it with Aaron Waving's read my book on this but essentially, if you have an advantage of one to two in a numerical force, it actually gives you the probability meaning is one to four. It's two to the squared.