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Downstream: How To Predict the Future w/ Peter Turchin

Novara Media

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The Disintegrative Period in the US

The model says that we will get another one in the peer in 2017 or so, because they're roughly 50 a year of social instability and violence. So eventually, if the wealth pump is not turned down, turned off, then eventually people will get tired of this instability. And there will be uneasy peace. Sometimes it lasts for 100 years because you have recurrence of this period of internal infighting. That seems to be the pattern in history.

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