GlobalData TS Lombard: Perkins Vs Beamish

Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish, both economists at TS Lombard, dive deep into the shifting landscape of global economics. They discuss the looming recession risks and the rivalry between China and the U.S., raising intriguing questions about who will yield first. The duo also explores the impact of tariffs and corporate choices, signaling the importance of economic indicators like the 'Perkins rule.' As tensions escalate, they examine the future of dollar supremacy and the resilience of the private sector amidst evolving market dynamics.

Dario Perkins, a macroeconomic expert at TS Lombard, and Freya Beamish, an analyst specializing in global economic conditions, dive into pressing financial questions. They discuss whether the U.S. is now 'uninvestable' amidst fears of a global recession. The duo highlights the impact of aggressive tariff policies on market sentiment and inflation dynamics. They also address the complexities of the labor market and advocate for shift towards safer investments in today's volatile environment.

Dario Perkins, an economist at TS Lombard, and Freya Beamish, also an economist at TS Lombard, dive deep into the effects of stock market fluctuations on potential recessions. They tackle pressing questions about whether market downturns can trigger economic slumps and discuss the Fed's ability to adjust rates amid tariffs. The duo examines how U.S. political dynamics may impact European economies, particularly Germany's stimulus on inflation and growth, while highlighting resilience among high-income earners in these turbulent times.

Dario's Short US/Long RoW has done well, closing time?Andrew Slazenger (andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer three of the top current client questionsThis week:S&P 500 correction. Is it over or just getting started?Is the US on the brink of Recession?The end of US exceptionalism?

And how the German Elections will alter the entire European growth picture Andrew Slazenger (andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer three of the top current client questionsThis week:1) Will there be a Mar-a-Lago accord?2) German Elections, European and Global impact?3) Will Dario's Short US/ Long RoW continue to work?

Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish dive into the chaos surrounding Trump’s tariffs and their mixed impact on market dynamics. They analyze the implications of potential monetary policy decoupling and whether the UK might rely on an IMF bailout amid its economic challenges. The duo reflects on Europe's surprising economic resilience compared to the UK's struggle, emphasizing the need for a strategic shift to improve productivity and recovery. Historical comparisons to the 1970s further enrich the discussion about navigating current economic crises.

Dario Perkins, MD Global Macro, and Freya Beamish, Chief Economist debate the three key client questions: 1.    Someone at Davos said the business cycle doesn't matter anymore. Should that terrify us? 2.    What have we learnt from Trump so far? 3.    Is the US exceptionalism trade still right?

Explore the chaos in the bond market and what factors are fueling the turmoil. Dive into insights about Trump's return and the contradictions in his economic policies post-election. Discover the urgent need for stimulus in China as the country reshapes its fiscal strategies. There's a fascinating look at the historical parallels between past and present political dynamics. Finally, gain insights into future investment strategies that can navigate these turbulent waters.

Bullish consensus spells trouble? Any Bears left? And Freya tries out her Scottish accent Dario Perkins, MD Global Macro, and Freya Beamish, Chief Economist debate the top three client questions: 1.   2025 outlook consensus: Why do they all agree? 2.   Where have all the bears gone? 3.   What's the most bearish take on 2025 and why don't you agree?

This week we cover:   1.    What can Trump do to lean on the Fed? 2.    How much confidence can we take from Bessent's appointment? 3.    What's the bull case for Europe inTrump World?