GlobalData TS Lombard: Perkins Vs Beamish Reaccelerating into an Inflation Crisis?
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Oct 2, 2025 Join Dario Perkins, a sharp senior economist known for his 'Perkins rule,' and macro strategist Freya Beamish as they tackle pressing questions about the economy. They discuss the implications of a potential government shutdown on GDP and labor data. Dario argues that the supposed stability from AI investments may be overstated. Freya explains the nuanced effects of immigration on inflation, highlighting the debate on deportations. Both guests caution about the risks of inflation driven by reduced labor supply amid shifting economic dynamics.
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Shutdowns Hurt Data, Not Markets
- Government shutdowns rarely move markets but they remove timely data and risk mis-timed policy decisions.
- Dario warns missing payrolls can make the Fed appear behind the curve and raise recession risk misreads.
Use Payroll Rules To Signal Recession
- Use simple, robust policy rules for signalling recession risk like the 'Perkins rule' on payroll contractions.
- Watch payrolls fall >~60k (not due to weather) as an actionable recession alert for policy response.
AI CapEx Is Visible But Not Labor's Savior
- AI capex explains some GDP strength but much of it was front‑loaded and sourced overseas, muting domestic multipliers.
- Employment hasn't followed GDP, so AI is not the main reason the US avoided a labour‑market recession.