GlobalData TS Lombard: Perkins Vs Beamish Fed Hikes in 2026?
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Oct 30, 2025 Dario Perkins, a macro strategist at TS Lombard, and Freya Beamish, a global economist, delve into pressing economic questions. They discuss the Fed's shifting stance and its implications for future rate hikes. Dario critiques the sustainability of the K-shaped economy while highlighting potential inflationary pressures from labor market rebounds. Freya warns about 'credit cockroaches' and the need for diversification outside the US, as they analyze opportunities in global markets shaped by AI advancements and geopolitical shifts.
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Fed Signalled A More Cautious Path
- Powell signalled the Fed may 'wait a cycle', shifting the committee from dovish consensus to a more hawkish stance.
- That change raises the probability of no December cut and makes earlier 2026 hikes more plausible if labor and inflation reaccelerate.
Inflation Could Reaccelerate If Jobs Rebound
- The Fed sees persistent core inflation even after stripping many items, raising concern about level-shifted prices.
- If employment reaccelerates next year, wage pressure could force the Fed or markets to tighten again in H2.
Don't Overreact To Credit Cockroaches
- Don’t overreact to isolated 'credit cockroaches' like subprime auto or student loan spikes; they partly reflect normalization after pandemic-era forbearance.
- Focus on aggregate credit and balance-sheet metrics before betting on systemic default risk.