GlobalData TS Lombard: Perkins Vs Beamish Is Trump Winning?
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Jul 31, 2025 Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish, both economists at TS Lombard, dive into the economic intricacies of Trump's leadership. They discuss whether Trump is winning with his policies, the perplexing shift of central banks toward social issues, and how that affects market stability. They also explore the labor supply issues stemming from immigration policies and the cautious approach of the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates. Additionally, they analyze inflation dynamics and its impact on the stock market, providing a nuanced look at current economic conditions.
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Trump's Apparent Wins Debated
- Trump's trade deal wins look impressive but may be largely illusionary upon deeper examination.
- Other claimed wins like tax cuts and stock market highs have mixed or regressive impacts on the economy.
Tariffs as Regressive Tax
- US tariffs act like a regressive tax borne mostly by American consumers and businesses.
- Current fiscal policy combined with tariffs results in a significant fiscal drag, hurting economic growth.
EU Trade Deal Is A Pyrrhic Victory
- EU trade deal with Trump looks like a political loss dressed as a win.
- Europe faced humiliating optics but avoided retaliatory actions to prevent worse economic damage.