GlobalData TS Lombard: Perkins Vs Beamish Powell vs Trump - It's WAR
4 snips
Jan 12, 2026 
Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish, both economists at TS Lombard, tackle the escalating tensions between the Federal Reserve and Trump. They dive into how Powell's independence is threatened and debate whether Trump's affordability plans could backfire, impacting low-income households. The duo discusses the potential for a productivity revival to combat inflation by 2026, while expressing skepticism about the role of AI in driving such gains. They conclude with advice to shift investment focus away from US tech towards cyclical and non-US markets for upcoming fiscal stimulus.
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Fed-Trump Clash Is A Real Escalation
- The Fed-Trump confrontation is a major escalation in politicising central banking.
- Markets have shrugged so far because disinflation and expected rate cuts dominate investor focus.
Markets Will Push Back On Political Interference
- Political pressure may make the Fed more determined to preserve independence rather than cave.
- Markets and the dollar act as guardrails if the Fed departs from expected policy and cause volatility.
Affordability Measures Risk Unintended Harm
- Many 'affordability' fixes are blunt and risk unintended effects like credit rationing.
- Fiscal rebates may boost short-term growth but also raise inflation and disrupt consumer credit access.