GlobalData TS Lombard: Perkins Vs Beamish The AI Bubble Timeline
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Sep 19, 2025 In this engaging discussion, macro strategist Dario Perkins and economist Freya Beamish delve into the fragility of the labor market and the contrasting signals from bonds and equities. Dario introduces his insightful 'Perkins rule' while Freya offers sharp rebuttals, emphasizing the complexities of inflation dynamics. They explore the current AI investment landscape, debating whether it's a mere bubble or a genuine productivity boom, and discuss potential triggers for a market downturn. It's a thought-provoking analysis on the intersection of economics and emerging technologies.
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Fed Worried About An Employment Spiral
- The Fed's main worry is an employment spiral if six-month payroll changes turn negative.
- That scenario could cost around 2–2.5 million jobs and trigger a recession if it materialises.
Monitor SME Payrolls For Tariff Pain
- Watch small and medium-sized firms closely because they struggle most to pass on tariff costs.
- Rising payroll stress in SMEs would be the early signal that tariffs are hitting jobs materially.
Demand And Supply Fall Can Still Be Inflationary
- Simultaneous declines in demand and labour supply aren't automatically disinflationary.
- Tariff pass-through and fiscal rebates could push inflation back even as employment softens.