GlobalData TS Lombard: Perkins Vs Beamish Inflationary Boom in 2026?
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Sep 3, 2025 The hosts dive into why Jerome Powell seems to reconsider his strategies amid market pressures. They unpack labor market complexities and the potential implications on interest rates and inflation. The discussion highlights risks of looming fiscal crises in the UK and US as global yields rise. Insight is provided on the ECB's crucial role in maintaining stability and parallels with past euro crises. Finally, they explore the impact of populist policies across countries and how they may reshape economic freedom.
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Powell's Signal Was Policy, Not Just Politics
- Powell signalled a policy shift by saying the baseline outlook "may warrant adjusting our policy stance," which was a clear signal to markets.
- Dario sees the labour market and payroll revisions as the main reason behind the Fed's pivot rather than pure political pressure.
Payroll Noise Can Trigger Policy Mistakes
- A weak payroll report can force the Fed into premature easing, as happened in 1995 when revisions altered the outlook.
- Dario warns September cuts could be an overreaction if payrolls rebound and later revisions change the narrative.
Small Job Gains Can Look Hawkish Today
- Freya argues Jackson Hole may have been peak dovishness and that Fed speak has turned slightly hawkish since.
- She highlights demographic tightening and tariff pass-through as forces that could make modest payroll gains feel hawkish.