GlobalData TS Lombard: Perkins Vs Beamish How the Cycle Ends and the Bubble Bursts
19 snips
Oct 15, 2025 Dario Perkins, a macro strategist known for his insights on trade and inflation, joins economist Freya Beamish, who specializes in currency dynamics and regional equity risks. They delve into whether markets will react to heightened trade tensions, explore the cyclical nature of inflation and potential triggers for the AI bubble. Discussions reveal the implications of labor dynamics and corporate margins on productivity, alongside strategies for portfolio diversification. A captivating examination of today’s economic landscape and what might lie ahead!
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Rare Earths Create Strategic Supply Risk
- China dominates rare earths because Western production declined for environmental reasons, creating strategic supply vulnerabilities.
- Dario expects a negotiated, partly cosmetic US-China deal to neutralize the worst disruptions.
Tariffs Squeeze Margins, Not Just CPI
- Markets now treat tariff shocks differently because much of the hit falls on corporate margins rather than CPI.
- Freya warns this complacency hides the risk of sticky inflation returning next year.
Europe Could Outperform On Policy Deltas
- The euro may benefit next year as Europe pairs fiscal impulse with a central bank ready to protect real returns.
- Freya sees stronger relative Eurozone policy deltas versus the US into 2026.