GlobalData TS Lombard: Perkins Vs Beamish The Big Fed Conspiracy
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Nov 27, 2025 Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish, both economists at TS Lombard, dive into the nuances of macroeconomic policy and labor markets. They discuss the likelihood of a Fed rate cut and the implications of rising dissent within the FOMC, linking it to market volatility. The duo also examines the impact of AI on GDP and labor, revealing how expectations often outpace reality. Finally, they critique recent budget moves in the UK and Japan, exploring how political dynamics and fiscal strategies affect economic growth.
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Fed 'BOEfication' Raises Market Uncertainty
- The Fed shows growing public dissent, making its actions harder to predict and increasing market volatility.
- Dario Perkins calls this a deliberate 'BOEfication' aimed at diluting the chair's singular control to protect Fed independence.
Inflation Set To Reaccelerate Next Year
- TS Lombard expects inflation to reaccelerate next year due to fiscal stimulus and demand rebuilding.
- They argue cuts priced in by markets may be premature and that inflation will push rates higher than consensus.
AI Hype Outpaces Measurable Economic Impact
- Dario warns AI effects are overhyped across GDP, jobs, and productivity narratives.
- He says current productivity gains reflect margin pressures and efficiency pushes, not an AI-driven boom.