GlobalData TS Lombard: Perkins Vs Beamish Off-Consensus Views for 2026
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Dec 17, 2025 Dario Perkins, an economist at TS Lombard known for his contrarian macroeconomic views, joins Freya Beamish, who specializes in fiscal multipliers and balance-sheet perspectives. Together, they explore the Fed's recent decisions and debate whether it acts as a backdoor financier. Their bold predictions for 2026 suggest unexpected growth, challenges from labor shortages, and the implications of different Fed chair candidates—Kevin Hassett and Kevin Walsh—on future policy. They also discuss the nuances of inflation and potential equity market shifts.
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Nobel Dreams And An AI Rap Diversion
- Dario jokes about expecting a Nobel Prize then pivoting to a music career.
- The exchange lightens the discussion before policy talk begins.
Payrolls Overstate Underlying Weakness
- Payrolls data mask a weakening labour market once overstatement is removed.
- Dario Perkins says underlying payrolls were contracting and that justified dovish Fed rhetoric.
View Fed Moves As Reserve Management
- Treat current Fed balance-sheet moves as routine reserve management rather than conspiratorial financing.
- Freya Beamish advises monitoring issuance maturity and reserves but not assuming backdoor Treasury financing yet.