FiveThirtyEight Politics

The guests, Mary Radcliffe, a Senior Researcher, Elliot Morris, Director of Data Analytics, and Nathaniel Rakich, Senior Elections Analyst, delve into Donald Trump's surprising second presidential victory. They dissect voter shifts among demographics, emphasizing changing attitudes among Hispanic and white voters. The discussion highlights the economic challenges during Biden's presidency and the aggravating political consequences. Finally, they analyze immigration's role in voter turnout and the complexities of Trump’s enduring appeal in a polarized landscape.

Nathaniel Rakich and Jeffrey Skelly, both senior elections analysts, dive into the intricacies of Election Night. They provide a detailed hour-by-hour guide on what to expect as polls close across the country. The duo discusses the significance of state benchmarks and the challenges of early exit polls. They explore key battlegrounds, highlighting critical voter demographics and the impact of early voting. With a focus on local dynamics in crucial areas like Wayne County, they emphasize the need for patience and careful analysis as results unfold.

Mary Radcliffe, a Senior researcher at FiveThirtyEight, and Ruth Igielnik, a New York Times polling editor, dive into the frenzied world of last-minute polling. They discuss the surprising Iowa Poll that paints a hopeful picture for Kamala Harris and reveal key findings from New York Times battleground surveys that challenge common trends. The conversation highlights the unpredictability of voter sentiment, the challenges of poll accuracy, and the implications of late deciders as Election Day approaches.

Mary Radcliffe, a senior researcher, and Nathaniel Rakich, a senior elections analyst, dive into intriguing election dynamics amid Halloween vibes. They address whether favorability impacts voter choices and the surprising ways bad weather might affect turnout. The duo also examines how economic conditions and incumbency influence voter sentiment, particularly among Latino communities. Notably, they discuss the rise in young voter registrations and what that means for upcoming elections, all while sharing their quirky election night traditions.

Larry Norden, the Vice President of the Elections and Government Program at the Brennan Center, dives into the potential turbulence of the 2024 election. He discusses the likelihood of litigation, with over 165 lawsuits already anticipated targeting voter eligibility. The conversation also covers the impact of misinformation on public trust and the importance of local election officials’ safety. Norden emphasizes the advancements in election integrity since 2020, including the significance of paper ballots and collaboration with law enforcement.

Mary Radcliffe, a senior researcher at FiveThirtyEight, and Elliot Morris, the editorial director of data, engage in a compelling discussion about democracy's importance to voters. They analyze a provocative comment from Trump's former chief of staff labeling Trump a "fascist" and its potential electoral implications. The pair dives into the voting behaviors of young men, highlighting their growing political disillusionment and shift towards independence. They also explore how anti-democratic actions, especially post-January 6th, impact voter perceptions.

Adam Geller, a Republican pollster focused on Gen Z men, joins Democratic pollsters Terrence Woodbury and Celinda Lake, alongside data analyst Lakshad Jain. They dive into the evolving voting patterns of Gen Z, revealing a gender divide with young men leaning toward Republicans. They examine perceptions of power among Black voters and how voter turnout will influence election outcomes. Geller emphasizes the importance of understanding non-voters' behaviors, while Lake discusses economic trust's impact on retrospective voting. A rich discussion on critical data points shaping the upcoming election!

Matt Grossmann and David Hopkins, political science professors and co-authors of "Polarized by Degrees," dive into the unprecedented educational divide shaping American politics. They discuss how college-educated voters lean Democratic, while non-college-educated voters are shifting right. The conversation highlights Democrats' reliance on expert opinions versus Republicans' skepticism, exploring the impact on governance and public perception. They also examine the implications for party strategies and the future of electoral outcomes in this polarized landscape.

Mary Radcliffe, a senior researcher at 538, and Nathaniel Rakich, senior elections analyst at 538, dive into the shifting landscape of undecided voters as Election Day approaches. They discuss the emergence of the 'podcast bros' as a new swing voter demographic. The duo also analyzes the unexpectedly tight Senate race in Nebraska, exploring how candidates are adapting their strategies to engage voters through unconventional platforms like podcasts and gaming. Tune in for insights that blend data with the dynamics of modern electoral campaigning!

Join Jeffrey Skelly, a Senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight, Ruth Egelnik, the New York Times polling editor, and Nathaniel Rakich, another Senior analyst at FiveThirtyEight, as they navigate the intricate landscape of down-ballot races. They humorously dissect shifting voter trends and unique campaign strategies, such as Jared Golden's re-election bid in Maine. The discussion also includes the rise of ranked choice voting in Alaska and the intense competition in California's House race. Buckle up for insights that go beyond the presidential spotlight!