Join Jeffrey Skelly, a Senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight, Ruth Egelnik, the New York Times polling editor, and Nathaniel Rakich, another Senior analyst at FiveThirtyEight, as they navigate the intricate landscape of down-ballot races. They humorously dissect shifting voter trends and unique campaign strategies, such as Jared Golden's re-election bid in Maine. The discussion also includes the rise of ranked choice voting in Alaska and the intense competition in California's House race. Buckle up for insights that go beyond the presidential spotlight!
Read more
AI Summary
AI Chapters
Episode notes
auto_awesome
Podcast summary created with Snipd AI
Quick takeaways
The podcast highlights the importance of down-ballot races, particularly in Democratic districts that previously leaned favorably towards Biden amidst changing voter sentiments.
Significant ballot initiatives on social issues, including drug legalization, indicate evolving public opinions that could influence voting behavior in upcoming elections.
Deep dives
Overview of Down-Ballot Races
Many races beyond the presidential election are on the ballot in November, including significant contests for the Senate, House, and several ballot initiatives across the country. In New York, House Democrats are optimistic about positive outcomes after a disappointing 2022, with four competitive races currently held by Republicans in districts that lean Democratic. The tightness of these races reflects a broader trend where a close presidential race typically leads to similar outcomes in Congressional contests. As the episode progresses, the focus will shift to pivotal districts nationwide, exploring critical down-ballot dynamics that could shape election results.
Impact of Voter Trends in New York and Maine
In New York, the 2022 midterm results suggest potential shifts in voter sentiment, particularly as Democrats face tough competition in districts that Biden had previously won significantly. Across the state, there is speculation about whether recent electoral results are a sign of waning Democratic support or an anomaly. Meanwhile, in Maine's second district, Democrat Jared Golden's unique appeal, including his relatable demeanor and local connections, has enabled him to win in a traditionally Republican territory. However, as the presidential race casts a shadow, the challenge remains for candidates like Golden to maintain support in a changing political landscape.
Legalization Initiatives and Their Implications
Various states are also addressing important social issues through ballot initiatives, particularly concerning marijuana legalization. The most high-profile of these is Florida's measure on recreational use, which has seen over $100 million in campaign spending, indicating significant interest from constituents. Additionally, Massachusetts is looking at a measure to legalize certain psychedelic drugs. The debate surrounding such initiatives reflects a shifting public opinion on drug policies, which may have wider implications for voters who prioritize these issues during elections.
Key Senate Races and Their Political Dynamics
Several critical Senate races are shaping the political landscape, notably in Ohio with incumbent Sherrod Brown facing stiff competition against a Republican opponent in an increasingly red state. Despite holding a slim lead in polls, Brown must navigate a challenging partisan atmosphere that risks undermining his chances. Similarly, the Montana race presents significant hurdles for Democrat John Tester as he contends with a heavily Republican-leaning electorate. Both cases exemplify how the political climate and shifting voter preferences are influencing the viability of Democratic candidates in traditionally favorable districts.
We talk plenty about the presidential race on the 538 Politics podcast, but of course, that is not the only thing on the ballot this November. Americans will cast their votes in races for the U.S. Senate and House, as well as dozens of ballot initiatives.
In this installment of the podcast, we’re going on a road trip across the country to cover as many noteworthy downballot races as possible. We start in the 538 podcast studio in New York state, where House Democrats are hoping for a better outcome than their lackluster 2022 performance, and we end in Alaska. Grab your favorite snacks and get in!