FiveThirtyEight Politics

Ruth Egelnik, polling editor at the New York Times, and Mary Radcliffe, senior researcher at FiveThirtyEight, bring their expertise to a playful discussion about the 2024 political landscape. They explore humorous political superlatives, drawing amusing parallels with high school experiences. The duo delves into polling trends, highlighting shifting voter dynamics, especially among Latino voters. They also examine the complexities of voter priorities on issues such as abortion and immigration, all while navigating the unpredictable nature of upcoming elections.

In this engaging discussion, Jessica Roth, a law professor and former federal prosecutor, sheds light on Donald Trump's complex legal landscape. She dives into the implications of his felony conviction for falsifying business records and the challenges of presidential immunity in ongoing cases. Roth also examines significant civil liabilities, including Trump's inflated asset claims, and the potential impact of recent pardons by President Biden. Tune in for a deep dive into the intertwining of law and politics surrounding a former president.

This week, the hosts hilariously catch up on the latest political chaos. They dive into the implications of President Biden’s controversial pardon for Hunter, while analyzing shifting public sentiments on Trump’s Cabinet picks. Discover how a slim GOP House majority poses new challenges and what a recent healthcare incident says about political violence. Plus, get insights on America’s evolving foreign policy in Syria and how public opinion has shifted since the Arab Spring. It’s a topsy-turvy ride through current events!

Join Mary Radcliffe, a senior researcher on political psychology, alongside Nathaniel Rakich and Jeffrey Skelly, both senior elections analysts specializing in voter behavior and election trends. They dive into why Democratic turnout dipped and explore the tangled dynamics in North Carolina's voting patterns. Expect a vibrant discussion on bandwagoning behavior, the impact of misinformation, and the complexities of polling data. These experts dissect what's shaping the 2024 electoral landscape with engaging insights and data-driven analysis.

Mary Radcliffe, a senior researcher, and Jeffrey Skelly, a senior elections analyst, dive into President Biden's unexpected pardon of his son, Hunter. They analyze the historical context and public reaction to this controversial move. The conversation shifts to the 2026 midterm elections, where challenges await both Democrats and Republicans. They discuss key state dynamics, the significance of incumbents, and the perpetual cycle of political engagement as the nation gears up for the next electoral showdown.

Dive into a discussion about how partisanship is reshaping economic sentiment, revealing grimmer realities for Democrats. Explore the wild world of political betting markets, speculating on cabinet appointments and Trump’s potential pardons. Discover a trend of increasing voter dissatisfaction that could signal the end of the incumbent advantage in 2024, paralleling historical political shifts. It's a blend of intriguing insights wrapped in a Thanksgiving spirit, reflecting on accountability and the evolving political landscape.

In this conversation, Ruth Agelnik, polling editor at the New York Times, and Elliot Morris, director of Data Analytics, dissect the 2024 election polling landscape. They reveal how polls improved accuracy with only a 2.7 percentage point miss this year, contrasting with previous elections. They tackle challenges like underestimating Trump's support and the evolving methodologies in polling. The duo also discusses innovative techniques such as river sampling and the impact of demographic shifts on voter behavior.

In this discussion, Jeffrey Skelly, a senior elections analyst, and Mary Radcliffe, a senior researcher, delve into expectations for a potential second Trump term. They analyze the implications of cabinet picks, like the controversial nomination of Matt Gaetz, and discuss how sexual assault allegations impact market perceptions. The duo also explores American consumer sentiment shifts post-election and questions surrounding the likelihood of electing a female president, adding a thought-provoking layer to the political landscape.

Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, sheds light on the surprising shift of Latino voters to the right in recent elections. He dives into key issues like the economy and immigration that are driving this change. Odio discusses Trump’s appeal and how Latino voters have become a powerful swing group. The conversation highlights the complexities of their voting behavior and the impact of both political parties’ actions, particularly regarding immigration and border security.

Nathaniel Rakich and Mary Radcliffe from FiveThirtyEight dive into a whirlwind of post-election hot takes. They dissect claims about Democrats losing the working class and analyze the accuracy of recent polls. Surprising trends emerge, such as Republican voters supporting liberal measures, and they explore down-ballot voting behaviors, especially regarding abortion initiatives. The duo also reviews the shifting dynamics in the House and Senate, revealing challenges a slim Republican majority faces amidst internal discord.