FiveThirtyEight Politics How The Polls Did In 2024
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Nov 21, 2024 
In this conversation, Ruth Agelnik, polling editor at the New York Times, and Elliot Morris, director of Data Analytics, dissect the 2024 election polling landscape. They reveal how polls improved accuracy with only a 2.7 percentage point miss this year, contrasting with previous elections. They tackle challenges like underestimating Trump's support and the evolving methodologies in polling. The duo also discusses innovative techniques such as river sampling and the impact of demographic shifts on voter behavior.
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Pollsters' High-Stakes Election
- The 2024 election was crucial for pollsters after inaccuracies in 2016 and 2020 eroded public trust.
- State-level polling accuracy was the highest in 25 years, but some underlying issues remain.
Recurring Trump Underestimation
- Polls performed relatively well in 2024, but they consistently underestimated Trump's support for the third consecutive election.
- This consistent underestimation suggests a recurring issue specific to Trump's presence on the ballot.
Unclear Polling Misses
- The reasons for polling misses in 2016 and 2020 remain unclear, but the 2024 results offer some clues.
- Merging polling data with voter turnout data might reveal non-response patterns among Trump supporters.