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FiveThirtyEight Politics
How The Polls Did In 2024
Nov 21, 2024
In this conversation, Ruth Agelnik, polling editor at the New York Times, and Elliot Morris, director of Data Analytics, dissect the 2024 election polling landscape. They reveal how polls improved accuracy with only a 2.7 percentage point miss this year, contrasting with previous elections. They tackle challenges like underestimating Trump's support and the evolving methodologies in polling. The duo also discusses innovative techniques such as river sampling and the impact of demographic shifts on voter behavior.
28:22
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Quick takeaways
- The 2024 election demonstrated a remarkable rebound in polling accuracy, showcasing a national average miss of only 2.7 percentage points.
- Emerging polling methodologies like river sampling have proven more effective than traditional methods, indicating a necessary evolution in polling practices.
Deep dives
The State of Election Polling
The 2024 election showcased a significant rebound in polling accuracy, with an average miss of only 2.7 percentage points nationally, marking the best performance for polls in recent history. This improvement comes after notable misses in 2016 and 2020, which had led to a decline in public trust in polling. Despite this progress, challenges remain, particularly regarding the consistent underestimation of support for Trump, which has occurred across three consecutive elections. This raises questions about the methodologies used and the ability of pollsters to reach certain demographics, especially those aligned with Trump's voter base.
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