Ruth Agelnik

Elliot Morris, Director of Data Analytics, and Ruth Agelnik, Polling editor at the New York Times, dive into the fascinating disconnect between Trump’s personal unpopularity and the surprising popularity of his policies on DEI and immigration. They dissect how public opinion has shifted since 2017, revealing the nuances in how polling questions can shape responses. With insights on the complexities of voter sentiment, they explore how Trump's strategies may adapt based on these evolving public attitudes.

In this conversation, Ruth Agelnik, polling editor at the New York Times, and Elliot Morris, director of Data Analytics, dissect the 2024 election polling landscape. They reveal how polls improved accuracy with only a 2.7 percentage point miss this year, contrasting with previous elections. They tackle challenges like underestimating Trump's support and the evolving methodologies in polling. The duo also discusses innovative techniques such as river sampling and the impact of demographic shifts on voter behavior.

Mary Radcliffe, a senior researcher at FiveThirtyEight, and Ruth Agelnik, polling editor at The New York Times, join the conversation to unravel the growing gender gap in young voters. They discuss how recent political debates are shaping attitudes toward violence and shifting voter preferences. Key topics include the influence of celebrity endorsements like Taylor Swift on youth engagement and the striking leftward shift among young women compared to their male counterparts. Their insights reveal profound implications for future elections.