Navigating the Complexities of Polling in a Democracy

Election Day was a moment of truth for pollsters. After high-profile misses in 2016 and 2020, and with a public that has become less trusting of polling, 2024 had the potential to be a make-or-break year for the polls.

Two weeks later, pollsters are, on the whole, breathing sighs of relief. Polls were less error-prone this year than in 2016 and 2020. By one measure, state-level polling was the most accurate it’s been in at least 25 years.

But that’s not the whole story. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we evaluate how the polls did, covering the good, the bad and the statistically insignificant. Hold on to your priors.

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