Elliot Morris, Director of Data Analytics, and Ruth Agelnik, Polling editor at the New York Times, dive into the fascinating disconnect between Trump’s personal unpopularity and the surprising popularity of his policies on DEI and immigration. They dissect how public opinion has shifted since 2017, revealing the nuances in how polling questions can shape responses. With insights on the complexities of voter sentiment, they explore how Trump's strategies may adapt based on these evolving public attitudes.

The guests, Mary Radcliffe, a Senior Researcher, Elliot Morris, Director of Data Analytics, and Nathaniel Rakich, Senior Elections Analyst, delve into Donald Trump's surprising second presidential victory. They dissect voter shifts among demographics, emphasizing changing attitudes among Hispanic and white voters. The discussion highlights the economic challenges during Biden's presidency and the aggravating political consequences. Finally, they analyze immigration's role in voter turnout and the complexities of Trump’s enduring appeal in a polarized landscape.

In this conversation, Ruth Agelnik, polling editor at the New York Times, and Elliot Morris, director of Data Analytics, dissect the 2024 election polling landscape. They reveal how polls improved accuracy with only a 2.7 percentage point miss this year, contrasting with previous elections. They tackle challenges like underestimating Trump's support and the evolving methodologies in polling. The duo also discusses innovative techniques such as river sampling and the impact of demographic shifts on voter behavior.

Elliot Morris, Director of Data Analytics at FiveThirtyEight, and Mary Radcliffe, Senior Researcher at FiveThirtyEight, tackle the complex dynamics shaping the upcoming election. They discuss the potential impact of generational and racial shifts on the Electoral College map. The conversation delves into changing American views on the Israel-Hamas conflict, evolving voter perceptions of Trump and Harris, and innovative polling techniques, including AI's role in election narratives. Their insights illuminate a rapidly evolving political landscape.

Mary Radcliffe, a senior researcher at FiveThirtyEight, and Elliot Morris, the editorial director of data, engage in a compelling discussion about democracy's importance to voters. They analyze a provocative comment from Trump's former chief of staff labeling Trump a "fascist" and its potential electoral implications. The pair dives into the voting behaviors of young men, highlighting their growing political disillusionment and shift towards independence. They also explore how anti-democratic actions, especially post-January 6th, impact voter perceptions.